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Projections of temperature, their uncertainty and relation to climate sensitivity

PI: Reto Knutti
Institution: National Center for Atmospheric Research
Abstract:
The proposed work includes investigating global and regional temperature projetions for SRES scenarios, with a focus on estimating uncertainty using statistical methods and comparing to probabilistic forecasts obtained with simple/intermediate complexity models. Further, we try to find a relation between simulated regional temperature patterns over the 20th and 21st century and climate sensitivity which would then allow to constrain climate sensitivity from observations.
Publications:
  • Knutti, R., G.A. Meehl, M.R. Allen and D. A. Stainforth, 2006: Constraining climate sensitivity from the seasonal cycle in surface temperature. Journal of Climate, 19, 4224-4233. Abstract. Edit.

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