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Land surface characteristics and climate change

PI: Guiling Wang
Institution: University of Connecticut
Abstract:
This project examines the impact of greenhouse gas warming on soil moisture based on predictions of fifteen global climate models by comparing the after-stabilization climate in the SRESA1b experiment with the pre-industrial control climate. Instead of using a simple all-model averaging, this project focuses on the behaviors of majority models and emphasizes the consistency among different models.

Previous studies suggested a summer dryness and winter wetness of soil in mid- and high-latitudes as CO2 increases. However, the 15 models analyzed in this project are consistent in predicting summer dryness and winter wetness in only part of the northern middle and high latitudes. Slightly over half of the models predict year-round wetness in central Eurasia and/or year-round dryness in Siberia and mid-latitude Northeast Asia. In the tropics and subtropics, decrease of soil moisture is the dominant response in all seasons. Models are especially consistent in predicting drier soil over the US Southwest, the Mediterranean, Australia, and the South Africa in all seasons, and over much of the Amazon and West Africa in the JJA season and the Asian monsoon region in the DJF season. Since the only major areas of future wetness predicted with a high level of model consistency are part of the northern middle and high latitudes during the non-growing season, it is suggested that greenhouse gas warming will cause a worldwide agricultural drought. Over regions where there are considerable consistency among the analyzed models in predicting the sign of soil moisture changes, there is a wide range of magnitudes of the soil moisture response, indicating a high degree of model dependency in terrestrial hydrological sensitivity. A major part of the inter-model differences in the sensitivity of soil moisture response are attributable to differences in land surface
parameterization.
Publications:
  • Alo, A. A., and G. L. Wang, 2007: Future changes of the terrestrial ecosystem and their hydrological impact based on climate projections by 8 GCMs. Part 2: Surface Hydrology. Journal of Geophysical Research -- Biogeosciences. In preparation. Abstract. Edit.
  • Alo, C.A., and G. L. Wang, 2007: Future changes of the terrestrial ecosystem and their hydrological impact based on climate projections by 8 GCMs. Part 1: Potential Natural Vegetation Changes. Journal of Geophysical Researh -- Biogeosciences. Submitted. Abstract. Edit.
  • Wang, G.L., 2005: Agricultural drought in a future climate: results from 15 GCMs participating in the IPCC AR4. Climate Dynamics, 25, 739-753, 10.1007/s00382-005-0057-9. Abstract. Edit.

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