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Climate Change Impact Assessment on Transportation Infrastructure in Manitoba

PI: A.K.M. Bhuiyan
Institution: University of Manitoba
Abstract:
This on going study is a part of "Regional Climate Change Impact Assessment for transportation infrastructure in Manitoba". Global Circulation Models (GCM) have been used to assess the impacts of greenhouse gases on climate change study for the last three decades. While useful, many studies have highlighted considerable uncertainties due to its coarse spatial resolution over global grids. There are also large precipitation errors which lead to significant problems for local impact studies. A number of studies suggest that climate downscaling using a nested dynamic model will provide further refinement of coarse scale GCM output simulate these local impacts. Here we consider the dynamic downscaling of climate data using the Pennsylvania State University / National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) mesoscale model, known as MM5. This model allows choices of cumulus parameterization, boundary layer schemes and convection schemes. The model domain consists of a mother domain centered at 54o N and 98o W which covers a large portion of the Canadian prairies with two inner domains at successive downscaled resolutions to 10 Km. To date, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data has been used for initial and boundary conditions to setup the model and run simulations. The model results are compared with ground observation station data and impacts on transportation infrastructure.

Now, to develop climate change scenarios, GCM climate data is required to force the boundary conditions for the next run.
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