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Climate Change Impacts for the U.S. Northeast

PI: Katharine Hayhoe
Institution: University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Additional Investigators: Ed Maure, Bruce Anderson
Abstract:
Building on our recent assessment of climate change impacts in California, we propose to use the AR4 model simulations for the SRES A2, A1B and B1 scenarios to examine potential impacts of climate change on the U.S. Northeast. Models used will likely include HadCM3, PCM and CCSM, although initial analyses will examine output from a range of models to identify those most representative for projected change over the region. Projections of monthly temperature, precipitation and humidity will be statistically downscaled to 1/8o using a gridded climatological and hydrological database of observed climate over the region (Maurer et al., 2002). Projected daily upper-air and land surface conditions will also be used to drive the NCEP regional spectral model in order to produce dynamical simulations of climate change for selected seasons and years over the Northeast, which can then be merged with the statistically downscaled data to produce an integrated picture of high-resolution climate change across the region. The downscaled climate projections will be used to provide input to assessments of regional climate impacts on agriculture and forest ecosystems; marine fisheries and coastal areas; air quality, disease vectors and human health; and water supply and quality.
Publications:
  • Ashton, Andrew, Jeffrey P. Donnelly and Rob L. Evans, 2008: A discussion of the potential impacts of climate change on the shorelines of the Northeastern USA. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, doi: 10.1007/s11027-007-9124-3. In press. Abstract. Full Article. Edit.
  • Fogarty, Michael, Lewis Incze, Katherine Hayhoe, David Mountain and James Manning, 2008: Potential climate change impacts on Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua ) off the northeastern USA. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, doi: 10.1007/s11027-007-9131-4. In press. Abstract. Full Article. Edit.
  • Frumhoff, Peter C., James J. McCarthy, Jerry M. Melillo, Susanne C. Moser, Donald J. Wuebbles, Cameron Wake and Erika Spanger-Siegfried, 2008: An integrated climate change assessment for the Northeast United States. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, doi: 10.1007/s11027-007-9138-x. In press. Abstract. Full Article. Edit.
  • Hayhoe, K., Wake, C., Anderson, B., Bradbury, J., DeGaetano, A., Liang, X.-Z., Zhu, J., Maurer, E. and Wuebbles, D., 2008: Translating Global Change into Regional Trends: Climate Drivers of Past and Future Trends in the U.S. Northeast. In preparation. Abstract. Edit.
  • Hayhoe, K., Wake, C., Huntington, T., Luo, L., Schwartz, M.D., Sheffield, J., Wood, E., Anderson, B., Bradbury, J., DeGaetano, A., Troy, T.J and Wolfe, D., 2007: Past and future changes in climate and hydrological indicators in the U.S. Northeast. Climate Dynamics, 28, doi:10.1007/s00382-006-0187-8. Abstract. Full Article. Edit.
  • Hayhoe, Katharine, Cameron Wake, Bruce Anderson, Xin-Zhong Liang, Edwin Maurer, Jinhong Zhu, James Bradbury, Art DeGaetano, Anne Marie Stoner and Donald Wuebbles, 2008: Regional climate change projections for the Northeast USA. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 10.1007/s11027-007-9133-2. In press. Abstract. Edit.
  • Iverson, Louis, Anantha Prasad and Stephen Matthews, 2008: Modeling potential climate change impacts on the trees of the northeastern United States. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, doi: 10.1007/s11027-007-9129-y. In press. Abstract. Full Article. Edit.
  • Kirshen, Paul, Chris Watson, Ellen Douglas, Allen Gontz, Jawon Lee and Yong Tian, 2008: Coastal flooding in the Northeastern United States due to climate change. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, doi: 10.1007/s11027-007-9130-5. In press. Abstract. Full Article. Edit.
  • Kunkel, K.E., H.-C. Huang, X.-Z. Liang, J.-T. Lin, D. Wuebbles, Z. Tao, A. Williams, M. Caughey, J. Zhu and K. Hayhoe, 2008: Sensitivity of future ozone concentrations in the northeast USA to regional climate change. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, doi: 10.1007/s11027-007-9137-y. In press. Abstract. Edit.
  • Ollinger, S.V., C. L. Goodale, K. Hayhoe and J. P. Jenkins, 2008: Potential effects of climate change and rising CO2 on ecosystem processes in northeastern U.S. forests. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, doi: 10.1007/s11027-007-9128-z. In press. Abstract. Full Article. Edit.
  • Paradis, Annie, Joe Elkinton, Katharine Hayhoe and John Buonaccorsi, 2008: Role of winter temperature and climate change on the survival and future range expansion of the hemlock woolly adelgid ( Adelges tsugae ) in eastern North America. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, doi: 10.1007/s11027-007-9127-0. In press. Abstract. Edit.
  • Rodenhouse, N.L., S. N. Matthews,, K. P. McFarland, J. D. Lambert, L. R. Iverson, A. Prasad, T. S. Sillett and R. T. Holmes, 2008: Potential effects of climate change on birds of the Northeast. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, doi: 10.1007/s11027-007-9126-1. In press. Abstract. Full Article. Edit.
  • Scott, Daniel, Jackie Dawson and Brenda Jones, 2008: Climate change vulnerability of the US Northeast winter recreation– tourism sector. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, doi: 10.1007/s11027-007-9136-z. In press. Abstract. Full Article. Edit.
  • Wolfe, David W., Lewis Ziska, Curt Petzoldt, Abby Seaman, Larry Chase and Katharine Hayhoe, 2008: Projected change in climate thresholds in the Northeastern U.S.: implications for crops, pests, livestock, and farmers. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, doi: 10.1007/s11027-007-9125-2. In press. Abstract. Edit.

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