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Uncertainty in downscaled precipitation extremes

PI: Xuebin Zhang
Institution: Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis
Additional Investigators: Jiafeng Wang, Francis Zwiers, Gabriele Hegerl
Abstract:
Projection of extreme precipitation for the future can be constructed by 1) use the model future precipitation directly, and 2) by statistically downscaling information contained in model simulated changes in large-scale circulation for the future (Wang et al. 2004a, Zhang et al. 2004). We are presently using the later approach to construct scenarios of extreme precipitation for North America, using CGCM2 simulations (Wang et al. 2004b). The goal of the proposed work is to quantify the spread of the projected extreme precipitation from downscaling approach, due to the use of data from different models. There will be close collaboration among this project and Kharin et al. and Hegerl et al. projects.
Publications:
  • Wang, J.F., and X.B. Zhang, 2006: Downscaling and projection of winter extreme daily precipitation over North America. J.Climate. In press. Abstract. Edit.

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