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Time-space characteristics of variabilities and trends in Asian Monsoon for 100 years

PI: Prasanna Venkatraman
Institution: Nagoya University
Abstract:
Objectives
As an initial step, I would like to study the CCSR/NIES models ability to simulate the Seasonal cycle of Asian Monsoon/Indian Monsoon features and compare it with the available observational dataset. Then Try to look at the regional aspects of interannual variability and trend in the seasonal means of parameters like Precipitaion, Temperature over the Asian monsoon region (South Asia, Indo-China peninsula, SCS, North East Asia,Western North Pacific) using the CCSR/NIES model output data. Then quantify the changes in the variabilities under increased Green House Gas emssion run output dataset (GHG run of CCSR/NIES).

Study (Analysis) Items

1) Trends and interannual variabilities of tempeature and hydrometeorological parameters over the various parts in Asian monsoon region will be studied using the 100 years model output dataset.

2) Temperature changes over the Asian land Mass in the last century will be analysized using observational NCEP dataset and CCSR/NIES Model output dataset. This could elucidate the warming over Eurasian land mass pertaining to global warming and its impact on the Asian summer monsoon.

3) The interannual variability of the Indian monsoon /Asian monsoon will be studied using the model output dataset from the Historical run of CCSR/NIES, particularly relevant to on land-atmosphere-ocean interactions..

4) The changes in the monsoonal pattern in the model will be studies based on some green house gas warming scenario.The trends and the interannual variability of Indian monsoon/Asian monsoon Precipitation using 100 yrs for Green House Gas run (1901-2000) for different regions within Asian monsoon domain (Regional aspects) will be studied in detail. The seasonal mean and standard deviations of rainfall simulated by CCSR/NIES model for Indian region and other regions can be compared with the observational datasets.

5) Some dynamical monsoon indices are useful as proxies of monsoon circulation and rainfall variabilities in validating the performance of GCMs. Therefore, the model simulated zonal and meridional wind indices for the monsoon season can be compared with the observed wind indices for the same period.
Publications:
  • Prasanna, V., and T. Yasunari,, 2011: Simulated Changes in the atmospheric water balance over south Asia in the eight IPCC-AR4 coupled climate models. Theoretical and applied climatology, 104, 139-158, doi:10.1007/s00704-010-0331-6. Abstract. Edit.

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