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Simple Models of Ocean Heat Uptake

PI: Jonathan Gregory
Institution: University of Reading and Met Office Hadley Centre
We would like to look into the possibility of using simple models of heat uptake for making scenario projections. Specifically, we would see how accurately global average temperature and ocean heat uptake in AR4 AOGCMs can be emulated by assumptions of (a) constant kappa (heat uptake divided by temperature, as in Raper et al. 2001) or (b) constant heat capacity (as in Watterson, 2000). The practical point of this is that it would provide an easily tuned alternative to a model with more physical content like the upwelling-diffusion model for estimating the results of scenarios which have not been run in the AOGCM. It is possible to do this if the forcing timeseries is known, as is the intention for AR4.

Raper, Stouffer and Gregory, 2001: Role of climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake on AOGCM transient temperature response, J Climate
Watterson, 2000: Interpretation of simulated global warming using a simple model, J Climate

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