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Trends in east Indian and Southern Ocean tropical and extra-tropical cyclone characteristics

PI: Lance M. Leslie
Institution: University of Oklahoma
Additional Investigators: Lixin Qi
Abstract:
The proposed analysis addresses possible trends and variability that can be detected in future climate simulations of tropical and intense extra-tropical cyclone-like events over the east and south Indian Ocean, and also the Southern Ocean in Australian/New Zealand longitudes. These systems play a major role in defining the regional climate of the area and also contribute significantly to the larger-scale general circulation of the atmosphere, through their interaction with the oceans. They are highly destructive systems both over the ocean or when approaching or making landfall. Changes in their frequency, intensity, duration and tracks therefore are of great importance. So far, there have been few studies of these systems. However, as a reference for determining trends, the PI recently has completed an extensive study, resulting in a co-authored article describing the climatology developed from past and present climate data, up to 2003 (Buckley, BW and LM Leslie, International J. of Climatology, 2004). The systems are identified in climate simulations using signature parameters such as the magnitudes of 850 hPa winds and vorticity fields, and SLP values of the surface centers relative to specified thresholds. The data required therefore is daily (or higher frequency if available) mean values of surface and upper level winds and geopotential heights (if available). Weekly SST fields are also desirable.
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