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Tropical Storm Frequency and Trajectories in the GCM Control and Quadruple CO2 Integrations

PI: Markus Stowasser
Institution: University of Hawaii
Abstract:
Tropical cyclones (TCs) simulated by moderate-resolution General Circulation Models exhibit a much lower intensity and larger spatial scale than in observations. Nevertheless, such models have been shown skill in reproducing some features of the observed interannual variability of TC numbers and locations, with notable success particularly in the Western North Pacific region.

The proposed project will use the IPCC data to characterize the number and trajectories of tropical storms in the Western North Pacific region in the full range of models. An objective procedure for tracking tropical storms will be applied to the output from the models. The location of TC genesis and the trajectories of the control runs will be investigated to determine whether the simulated interannual variability and spatial distribution is consistent with observations. Then the changes in frequency and trajectories in the runs with 4xCO2 forcing will be analyzed, together with the changes in the aspects of large-scale environmental parameters thought to be related to tropical cyclone genesis. This study can also be extended to other ocean basins. In order to keep the volume of data involved to manageable proportions, the focus will be on examining data from limited (~30 year) segments from just the control and most-strongly forced (quadruple CO2) integrations.
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