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The influence of increased atmospheric CO2 on the length of the dry season over South America and other monsoon regions

PI: Rong Fu
Institution: Georgia Institute of Technology
Additional Investigators: Wenhong Li
Length of dry season largely determines the vegetation types in tropics. The length of dry season over Amazon is strongly influenced by sea surface temperature changes over the adjacent tropical oceans and soil moisture during dry season in the current climate. Such a high sensitivity to changes of external oceanic and internal land conditions could lead to persistent drought as atmospheric CO2 increases. The drought could cause "die off" of the Amazon rainforest and further amplify the original increase of global atmospheric CO2 (Cox et al. 2000). In this project, we plan to analysis the length of dry in the 20th. century simulation and compare it to observations to determine the realism of the rainfall climatology over Amazon, as well as other tropical monsoon regions. 21st. century simulations for 720 ppm and 550 ppm CO2 scenarios will be analyzed to investigate the influence of increase CO2 on the length of dry season.
  • Li, W., R. E. Dickinson, R. Fu, G.-Y. Niu, Z-L. Yang, and J. G. Canadell, 2007: Future Precipitation Changes and Their Implications for Tropical Peatlands. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, 6, doi:10.1029/2006GL028364. Abstract. Full Article. Edit.
  • Li, W., R. Fu, and R. E. Dickinson, 2006: Rainfall and its seasonality over the Amazon in the 21st century as assessed by the coupled models for the IPCC AR4. J. Geophys. Res., 111, D02111, 10.1029/2005JD006355. Abstract. Full Article. Edit.
  • Li, W.H, Fu, R., Negrón Juárez,R.I., Fernandes K., 2007: Observed Change of the Standardized Precipitation Index, Its Potential Cause and Implications to Future Climate Change in the Amazon Region. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. In press. Abstract. Full Article. Edit.
  • Malhi,Y., Roberts, J. T., Betts,RA, Killeen, T. J., Li, W.H., Nobre., C. A., 2008: Climate Change, Deforestation and the Fate of the Amazon. science, 319, 169-172, doi:10.1126/science.1146961. Abstract. Full Article. Edit.

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