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Assessing the impact of climate change in the European Union and the potential benfits of mitigation: the case for human health and energy consumption

PI: Matt Livermore
Institution: University of East Anglia
Additional Investigators: Jean Palutikof, Graham Bentham, Tim Osborn
Abstract:
Previous work has looked at the potential global impacts of climate change on human health using the HadCM3 SRES scenarios (van Lieshout et al. 2004) and the potential benefits of stabilisation using two HadCM2 scenarios (s750 and s550) (Arnel et al, 2002).

To conduct two sectoral impact analyses investigating the impact of climate change on (i) electricity and gas demand and (ii) human mortality rates across Europe, using a suite of national-level impact models. The models have already been run using daily data from 7 SRES-driven HadCM3 experiments but in order to capture the full range of uncertainties results from other models are required. With the likely impacts identified, an assessment could then be made of the potential benefits of climate mitigation policies using the new stabilisation scenarios outlined in the IPCC announcement, "Opportunity to participate in climate model analyses leading towards the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report". In order to perform such a set of analyses the following daily data sets would need to be made available:

* Essential Data sets needed to compute effective temperatures and stress indices
1) Daily tmax and tmin
2) Daily relative or specific humidity
3) Daily mean max and mean windspeed
4) Daily mean SLP
5) Daily precipitation

* Secondary data sets to aid in understanding of model behaviour
5) Daily soil moisture
6) Daily latent surface heat flux
7) Daily evaporation

References:

M. van Lieshout,, R.S. Kovats, M.T.J. Livermore, and P. Martens (2004) Climate change and malaria: analysis of the SRES climate and socio-economic scenarios, Global Environmental Change, 14 (1): 87-99.

Arnell NW, Cannell MGR, Hulme M, Kovats RS, Mitchell JFB, Nicholls RJ, Parry ML, Livermore MTJ, & White A (2002) The consequences of CO2 stabilisation for the impacts of climate change, Climatic Change, 53 (4): 413-446.
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