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20th century trends in the occurrence of extreme events: Storms, rainfall, hurricanes

PI: Manfred Mudelsee
Institution: Boston University
Abstract:
To analyse trends in the occurrence of such extreme events. To compare trends for model output with those for measured data (which we have in case of topics 1 and 2; for topic 3 we could offer our collaboration with data people).

Objective:
To estimate whether such extreme events are likely or not to occur more frequently in future.

Method:
Kernel occurrence rate estimation. I introduced this to analyse flood occurrence in European rivers over the past 500 years (Mudelsee et al. 2003 Nature 425:166-169). In Mudelsee et al. (in press; Journal of Geophysical Research---Atmospheres) we show in detail the methodical edge of our statistical approach over other approaches.

Model data required:
Regional climate model output for above regions, at monthly or higher resolution.
Publications:

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