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Using IPCC simulations for the 20th century and the 21st century to drive a terrestrial biosphere model

PI: Colin Prentice
Institution: University of Bristol
Additional Investigators: Sarah Cornell, Marko Scholze
We propose to use the IPCC simulations for the 20th century (as model evaluation) and the 21st century (as future projection) to drive a terrestrial biosphere model, the Lund-Potsdam-Jena dynamic global vegetation model (LPJ), which is developed on an ongoing basis by a European consortium that is led by Colin Prentice. We will use LPJ to analyse climate- and CO2-driven changes in vegetation structure and composition. We will also couple LPJ to state-of-the-art prognostic modules for (a) aeolian dust emission, and (b) fire regimes, with a view to examining a range of issues concerning changes in dust-storm and fire hazards and possible consequences for e.g. marine iron fertilization, and pyrogenic emissions of trace gases and black carbon. LPJ requires monthly data for max and min temperature, precipitation, rain-days, and fractional sunshine hours. The dust and fire modules, additionally, require wind speed data, ideally at 6-hourly resolution.
  • Scholze, M., Knorr, W., Arnell, N., and I.C. Prentice, 2006: A climate change risk analysis for world ecosystems. PNAS, 103, 13116-13120, doi:10.1073/pnas.0601816103. Abstract. Edit.

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