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Analysis of aerosol indirect effects in GCMs

PI: Johannes Quaas
Institution: Max-Planck-Institut für Meterorologie
Abstract:
I would like to contribute to the analysis of the IPCC scenarios by
(1) analysing statistically the strength of the aerosol indirect effects in the models.

(2) analysing the evolution of the aerosol impacts on different quantities by comparing simulations including and excluding anthropogenic aerosols.

For (1), the modelled aerosol indirect effects could be compared to similar relationships based on satellite data. This would give a qualitative estimate about how well the particular models simulate the aerosol indirect effects, and could help to distinguish models which perhaps over- or underestimate this forcing.

For (2), the modelled climate trends in surface temperature, diurnal temperature range, shortwave radiation, and cloud cover at the different altitudes could be intercompared, and for the 20th century also compared to observed tendencies. A qualitative assessment could be possible about how well the different trends are represented in the particular models.


I would need for (1), if available, a measure of the aerosol load in the models (e.g., aerosol optical depth), and a measure of the cloud particle size (e.g., cloud droplet effective radius). In addition, cloud optical thickness and/or cloud liquid water path would be helpful for further analysis. For (2), I would ask for measures of the surface temperature, diurnal temperature range (or equivalently daily maximum- and minimum temperatures), low level, mid level and high level cloudiness in the ISCCP definitions, total cloudiness, and radiative fluxes in the shortwave band at the top of the atmosphere and the surface.
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