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Atmospheric Circulation Statistics and Climate Change in Europe: An Assessment of Coupled Model Simulations for the Period 1900-2200.

PI: Aad van Ulden
Institution: KNMI
Additional Investigators: Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Geert Lenderink
Regional climate characteristics are strongly influenced by the statistics of regional atmospheric circulations. Therefore, regional climate change will depend not only on global scale changes but also on possible changes in the atmospheric circulations. In this paper, we will analyse coupled model simulations of monthly mean pressure fields and geostrophic winds over Europe. Simulated circulation statistics will be compared with the statistics of long observation records. The impact of biases and changes in the simulated circulation statistics on European climate change will be assessed.

Required data:

Time series of monthly mean sea level pressure, surface temperature and precipitation on a coarse grid over Europe.
Time series of annual mean temperature and precipitation, averaged over the Northern and over the Southern Hemisphere.
  • Hurk, B.J.J.M. van den, A.K. Tank, G. Lenderink, A. van Ulden, G.J. van Oldenborgh, C. Katsman, H. van den Brink, F. Keller, J. Bessembinder, G. Burgers, G. Komen, W. Hazeleger and S. Drijfhout, 2007: New climate change scenarios for the Netherlands. Water Science and Technology, 4, 27-33. Abstract. Edit.
  • van Oldenborgh, G. J., 2007: How unusual was autumn 2006 in Europe?. Clim. Past, 3, 659-668. Abstract. Full Article. Edit.
  • van Oldenborgh, G.J., S.S. Drijfhout, A.P. van Ulden, R. Haarsma, A. Sterl, C. Severijns, W. Hazeleger, and H. Dijkstra, 2009: Western Europe is warming much faster than expected. Clim. Past, 5, 1-12. Abstract. Full Article. Edit.
  • van Ulden, A.P. and van Oldenbrogh, G.J., 2006: Large-scale atmospheric circulation biases and changes in global climate model simulations and their importance for climate change in Central Europe. Atm. Chem. Phys., 6, 863-881, sref:1680-7324/acp/2006-6-863. Abstract. Full Article. Edit.

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