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Atmosphere-cryosphere coupling in the polar regions

PI: John Walsh
Institution: University of Alaska Fairbanks
Additional Investigators: Vladimir Kattsov, William Chapman
Our group proposes to analyze the Arctic and Antarctic output of the AR4 simulations. Our focus will be on the model simulations of the polar atmospheres, particularly the variables that control the extent and thickness of sea ice, the extent of permafrost, and the state of the polar oceansí upper layers. The key atmospheric fields include sea level pressure, surface air temperature, precipitation (snowfall), cloudiness, and radiative fluxes. We will pay particular attention to the seasonality of the control runs and to the temporal changes projected in the greenhouse simulations (A1, A2, B1, 1% CO2). We will document the relationship between the greenhouse warming in each polar region, as well as the hemispheric mean warmings, and (i) the modelsí sea ice extent in the control climate, and (ii) the amount by which sea ice retreats in the greenhouse simulations. We will also document the greenhouse-driven changes in the variability and extremes of the primary atmospheric variables, using the monthly output and (when available from a subset of the models) daily output. The polar diagnostic intercomparison will interface with the IPCC AR4 chapter authorship duties of Kattsov (modeling chapter, WG1) and Walsh (Polar Regions, WG2). Both investigators, as well as research programmer Chapman, have participated in the analysis of the output of the AMIP and CMIP global models.
  • Kattsov, V.M., G.A. Alekseev, T.V. Pavlova, P.V. Sporyshev, R.V. Bekryaev, V.A. Govorkova, 2007: Modeling the evolution of the World Ocean ice cover in the 20th and 21st centuries. Izvestia of Russian Academy of Sciences: Physics of Atmosphere and Ocean, 43. Abstract. Edit.
  • Kattsov, V.M., J. E. Walsh,W.L. Chapman, V. A. Govorkova, T.V. Pavlova, and X. Zhang, 2007: Simulation and Projection of Arctic Freshwater Budget Components by the IPCC AR4 Global Climate Models. J. Hydrometeorology, 8, 571-589. Abstract. Edit.
  • Pavlova, T.V., V.M. Kattsov, Ye.D. Nadyozhina, P.V. Sporyshev, V.A. Govorkova, 2007: Terrestrial cryosphere evolution through the 20th and 21st centuries as simulated with the new generation of global climate models. Earth Cryosphere, 11/2, 3-13. Abstract. Edit.
  • Sorteberg A., V. Kattsov, J.E. Walsh, and T. Pavlova, 2007: The Arctic surface energy budget as simulated with the IPCC AR4 AOGCMs. Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-006-0222-9. Abstract. Edit.
  • Wang M., J.E. Overland, V. Kattsov, J.E. Walsh, X. Zhang, T. Pavlova, 2007: Intrinsic versus forced variation in coupled climate model simulations over the Arctic during the 20th Century.. Journal of Climate, 20, 1084-1098. Abstract. Edit.

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