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Changes in Extratropical Cyclone Climatologies with Enhanced Greenhouse Warming

PI: Steve Lambert
Institution: Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis
Additional Investigators: John Fyfe
At the IPCC meeting on extremes in Beijing in 2002, the consensus was that climate models do not simulate a consistent change in the behaviour of cyclones with Greenhouse warming. It is uncertain whether this perception arises from differences in the models or from differences in analysis techniques. This suggests that a project be undertaken which employs as many models and as many analysis techiques as possible; i.e., filtered variance, vorticity centres, cyclone tracks, and cyclone events.

The analyses would consist not only of storm track position changes but also changes in cyclone frequencies and strengths. Various methods of identifying and counting cyclones would be employed.

Data: twice daily gridded fields of SAMPLED values of MSLP, low level vorticity, and one 500 mb field (height, meridional wind). Ten-year 'time slices' at the beginning and the end of the transient runs would be needed.
  • Lambert, S.J., and J.C. Fyfe, 2006: Changes in Winter Cyclone Frequencies and Strengths Simulated in Enhanced Greenhouse Warming Experiments: Results from the Models Participating in the IPCC Diagnostic Exercise. Climate Dynamics, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-006-0110-3. In press. Abstract. Full Article. Edit.

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