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PCMDI > WCRP CMIP3 Model Output > Diagnostic Subprojects Printer Friendly Version
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Analysis of Global Hydroclimates

PI: Thomas Phillips
Institution: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory / PCMDI
Additional Investigators: Adam Schlosser, Chris Milly, Krista Dunne, John Wahr, Sean Swenson, P. Gleckler, Yun Duan
The goals of the subproject will be to

1) validate selected components of the global atmospheric and land-surface hydrological cycles in the IPCC control runs, and

2) analyze perturbed-minus-control climate changes in these components and in related hydrological diagnostics.

Because of the dearth of global observations of most hydrological components, we will limit quantitative validation of the control climates mainly to precipitation and precipitable water. (For these components it is feasible to choose different global reference data sets in order to bracket current observational uncertainties.) However, we also will qualitatively validate model climatologies of runoff and land-surface evaporation using estimates derived from land models that are driven off-line with observed forcings (e.g. as provided by the GLDAS and/or GSWP projects). To supplement this limited observational validation, we will verify model conformance with relevant atmospheric and land moisture conservation laws, and the absence of spurious trends in soil moisture and snow mass. In addition, we will analyze perturbed-minus-control climate changes in diagnostics which are indicators of hydrological processes having important societal ramifications (e.g. changes in atmospheric moisture residence time and convergence-divergence patterns, in the timing of Spring snow melt and associated runoff, in fractional soil wetness, in the partitioning of precipitation between runoff and evapotranspiration, etc.)

Other scientists conversant with any of these topics are welcome to participate.

Model data requirements:
Monthly fields of global precipitation, precipitable water, runoff, soil water and soil ice (if predicted) with associated field capacities, snow mass/cover/melt, soil ice (if predicted), and land-surface evapotranspiration or latent heat flux.
  • Duan, Q., and T.J. Phillips, 2010: Bayesian estimation of local signal and noise in multimodel simulations of climate change. J. Geophys. Res., 115, 15, doi:10.1029/2009JD013654. Abstract. Full Article. Edit.
  • Milly, P.C.D., K.A. Dunne, and A.V. Vecchia, 2005: Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate. Nature, 438, 347-350, doi:10.1038/nature04312. Abstract. Full Article. Edit.
  • Phillips, T.J., and P.J. Gleckler, 2006: Evaluation of continental precipitation in 20th century climate simulations: The utility of multimodel statistics. Water Resources Research, 42, 10.1029/2005WR004313. Abstract. Full Article. Edit.
  • Swenson, S.C., and P.C.D. Milly, 2006: Climate model biases in seasonality of continental water storage revealed by satellite gravimetry. Water Resour. Res., 42, W03201, doi:10.1029/2005WR004628. Abstract. Full Article. Edit.

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