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Late 20th century trends in rainfall and atmospheric circulation in Southern Australia

PI: Mark Collier
Institution: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
Additional Investigators: Wenju Cai, Dave Bi, Tony Hirst
Rainfall over Southern Australia has been decreasing since the late 1960s. However, the contributions of natural variability and the climate change forcing are inconclusive from past studies performed with observations and climate model experiments. In this study we will examine rainfall trends on a seasonal basis and changes in atmospheric circulation that may have led to this long-lasting rainfall decrease.

Variables required: rainfall, geopotential height, mean-sea level pressure, surface screen temperature, soil moisture, radiative and turbulent heat fluxes , and potential evaporation.
  • Collier et al., 2008: IPCC Standard Output from the CSIRO Mk3.0 Climate System Model. CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research Paper, 8, 466. Abstract. Full Article. Edit.
  • Collier, M.A, M.R. Dix and A.C. Hirst, 2007: CSIRO Mk3 Climate System Model and meeting the strict IPCC AR4 data requirements. MODSIM07 conference paper, 7. Abstract. Full Article. Edit.
  • F.S. Mpelasoka, M.A. Collier, R. Suppiah and J. Peña Arancibia, 2007: Application of Palmer Drought Severity Index to Observed and Enhanced Greenhouse Conditions using CSIRO Mk3 GCM Simulations. MODSIM07 conference, 7. Abstract. Full Article. Edit.
  • Kiktev, D., Caesar, J., Alexander, L.V., Shiogama, H. and M.A. Collier, 2007: Comparison of observed and multimodeled trends in annual extremes. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, 5, doi:10.1029/2007GL029539. Abstract. Edit.
  • Rotstayn, L, Collier, M.A., Feng, Y., Gordon, H., O'Farrell, S., Smith, I., and J Syktus, Improved simulation of Australian climate and ENSO-related rainfall variability in a GCM with an interactive aerosol treatment. International Journal of Climatology. Submitted. Abstract. Edit.

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