PCMDI > WCRP CMIP3 Model Output > Diagnostic Subprojects

PI:	Cheng-Ta Chen
Institution:	National Taiwan Normal University
Additional Investigators:	Tom Knuston, Huang-Hsiung Hsu
Abstract:
We would like to study the change of extreme events from historical model run to climate scenario runs using both extreme value statistical theory and extreme indices. The investigation will go beyond only the statistical inference of frequecy distribution change to assessment on the processes that lead to projected changes. Right now using data from GFDL CM2.0 and CM2.1 model experiments, we found that relatively large increase of 30-year return level of daily rainfall in the India, East Asia, maritime continent, and western Pacific warm pool regions as compared to other part of world. It would certainly be interesting to analyze other model result and examine whether there is model dependence on these peculiar type of change in extreme events. Additional emphasis will be on using the systhesis of various meteorological fields to understand the processes leads to the pattern of change in extreme.
Publications:
Chen, Cheng-Ta, and Thomas Knutson, 2008: On the Verification and Comparison of Extreme Rainfall Indices from Climate Models. Journal of Climate, 21, 1605-1621, doi:10.1175/2007JCLI1494.1. Abstract. Full Article. Edit. Add Publication