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Predicting Anthropogenic ENSO Changes

PI: Joshua Dorin
Institution: Penn State University
Additional Investigators: Klaus Keller
Abstract:
Current predictions about ENSO response to anthropogenic forcing are highly uncertain. Current studies on using observations to derive probabilistic ENSO forecasts break important new ground (e.g., Collins, 2005), but leave important questions open. We plan to evaluate the effects of using a likelihood based weighting method (as opposed to a weighting based on ENSOness [Collins, 2005]) on the skill of probabilistic ENSO forecasts using a subset of the Fourth Assessment Report model runs.
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