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Climate Change and Extreme Rainfall-related Surface Runoff Risks in Ontario

PI: Chad Shouquan Cheng
Institution: Meteorological Service of Canada
Additional Investigators: Joan Klaassen, Heather Auld, Guilong Li, Dwight Boyd, Don Haley, Mark Helsten, Bruce A. Reid, Alan Pang, Don MacIver, Rick Goldt, Neil Comer, Ian Cameron, Rob Fox
Abstract:
The purpose of the proposed study is to estimate possible changes in the frequency and magnitude of extreme rainfall, surface runoff and flooding risks in the 21st century for several pilot watersheds in Ontario.

The specific objectives of this project are to determine the impacts of future climate change on the frequency and magnitude of rainfall, surface runoff and flooding risks in Ontario, by comparing frequencies and characteristics of weather types from the historical period (1958-2000) with projected weather types from downscaled GCM projections for three-time windows (2010-2029, 2040-59 and 2070-2089) in the 21st century. Statistical downscaling methods will be used to transfer large grid point GCM data to the site-specific locations for these 3 future time windows. In addition, the historical run (1961-2000) of the GCM outputs will be used for correction of the GCM model system bias.
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