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Trends in large-scale circulations and thermodynamic structures in the tropics derived from climate change experiments

PI: Junichi Tsutsui
Institution: Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Japan
In recent years, the frequency of natural disasters due to tropical cyclones tends to increase, which raises questions about possible changes in tropical cyclone activity under global warming. Although recent observational and modeling studies suggest an increased intensity and a decreased frequency in the future, there is considerable uncertainty about climatological behaviors of tropical cyclones including their large natural variability.

The objective of this study is to accumulate scientific knowledge about future changes in tropical cyclone activity based on tendencies in tropical large-scale fields, which presumably are dominant factors that affect tropical cyclone activity. As the first step toward this objective, trends in large-scale tropical circulations and thermodynamic structures are investigated using multiple climate data. To examine large-scale circulations, intensities of Hadley, Walker, and monsoon circulations are defined based on velocity
potential in the upper troposphere, and their climatology and interannual variations are compared. Climate data are reanalyses including ongoing Japanese data, and historical and future climate change experiments for the upcoming IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.
  • Tsutsui, J., 2010: Changes in potential intensity of tropical cyclones approaching Japan due to anthropogenic warming in sea surface and upper-air temperatures. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 88, 263-284. Abstract. Full Article. Edit.

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