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Prediction of future climate change over equatorial east africa by high resolution climate models

PI: Alphonse Mutabazi
Institution: Rwanda Meteorological Service
Additional Investigators: Seita Emori, Hideo Shiogama
The proposed study will apply the outputs of high resolution climate model of Japanese AOGCM (MIROC) (Emori, S et al., 2005, Emori, S. 2006).

The area of study is characterized by various heterogeneous surface features such as Lake Victoria, the largest in the tropical region, the high mountains Kilimanjaro (5895 m), Mount Kenya(5119 m) , Ruwenzori (5094 m), Karisimbi (4507 m) , the complex Rift Valley System and the Congo Basin/Tropical Rainforest.

The primary objective of this study is to enhance understanding of the climate of Rwanda and adjoining regions in order to analyze and discuss the future climate change scenarios for assessment of associated impacts on socio-economic development.

The sustainability of the Rwandan and neighboring economies revolve around climate sensitive socio-economic activities. In particular, countries within the region are largely dependent on rain-fed agriculture for economic independence and food security. Moreover the region is very vulnerable to natural disasters related to climate change and variability.

1. We shall verify the predictability of Japanese Global High Resolution Climate Model MIROC over equatorial east Africa region by comparison and calculation of statistical coincidence of the model outputs and observed data (ground observation, reanalysis, and satellite data) for the period 1961-2005.

2. We shall analyze and discuss the 25~30 years (up to 2030) model projection of following:
- Future regional climate change (atmospheric circulation)
- Future projection of mean and extreme precipitation
- Future projection of maximum and minimum temperature
  • MUSERUKA, C., and MUTABAZI, A., 2007: Assessment of Global Solar Radiation over Rwanda. Clean Electrical Power, 2007. ICCEP apos;07. International Conference on, 670 - 676, 10.1109/ICCEP.2007.384312. Abstract. Full Article. Edit.

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