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Intercomparison of model-simulated historical and future changes in extreme events

PI: Claudia Tebaldi
Institution: National Center for Atmospheric Research
Additional Investigators: Julie Arblaster, Katharine Hayhoe, Jerry Meehl
We analyzed multi-model ensemble projections of ten indices of extremes computed by the modeling groups on the basis of daily output of Tmin, Tmax and Precipitation. We analyzed inter-model agreement in the tendencies of these indices as average global trends over 20th and 21st centuries and geographical patterns of change between end of the 21st and end ofthe 20th century. Only a qualitative validation of current trends on the basis of published literature was performed, focusing on agreement in sign and significance of projected changes in extremes. One of the paper focuses specifically on changes in precipitation intensity.
  • Meehl, G.A., J.M. Arblaster and C. Tebaldi, 2005: Understanding future patterns of increased precipitation intensity in climate model simulations. Geophys. Res. Letts, 32, doi:10.1029/2005GL023680. Abstract. Full Article. Edit.
  • Meehl, G.A., J.M. Arblaster, and C. Tebaldi, 2007: Contributions of natural and anthropogenic forcing to changes in temperature extremes over the U.S.. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L19709, doi:10.1029/2007GL030948. Abstract. Full Article. Edit.
  • Tebaldi, C., K. Hayhoe, J.M. Arblaster, G.A. Meehl, 2006: Going to the extremes; An intercomparison of model-simulated historical and futre changes in extreme events. Climatic Change, 79, 185-211, 10.1007/s10584-006-9051-4. Abstract. Full Article. Edit.

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