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Effects of Climate Change on the East European Plane

PI: Alexander Kislov
Institution: Moscow State University
Additional Investigators: Galina Sourkova,
Abstract:
In many respects sustainable development of any region is defined by climate conditions. This is especially relevant for naturally guided sectors of economy as hydro-electricity, agriculture, forestry, transportation, tourism/recreation, and fishery. The role of a climate is strengthening by that fact that many natural parameters are climatically stipulated. In this respect, climate is a natural Climatic Resource [CR] determining potential opportunities and headway of any region. The natural energy CR include water- and wind power. The transportation, tourism/recreation CR include temperature and precipitation, duration of cold and warm season, etc.

The CR are affected by the Global Climate Change [GCC] depending from regional geography and environmental characteristics. Recognition of the CR variability is necessary for the development of appropriate adaptation strategies to achieve environmental/economic balance for sustainable development of any particular area. Such recognition requires reliable short- and long time climate projecting.

This project will be used to predict changes in temperature, daily solar radiation, duration of winter/summer seasons, precipitation, humidity, wind velocity, etc., within the East European Plane. Data of climate simulation can be used to predict sustainability of CR. For a variable area as the East European Plane Region, a one-size-fits-all approach is unsuitable, yet sub-regional-scale information on climate change is not readily available. Not only there is a scientific need to understand regional climate change, there also is a economical one. If a balance between the economy and the environment is sought, this balance must be optimised sub-regionally, in the environmental and economical interest. Our proposed project is the tool that can make this optimisation possible, for one particular sub-region in Europe, while laying the framework for optimisation elsewhere.

Additionally, the project aims to evaluate both direct and indirect effects of the GCC on public health in the region based on the predicted parameter changes, and suggests possible mitigation strategies in terms of their practical application.
Publications:
  • Kislov, A., and V.Evstigneev, S.Malchazova, N.Sokolichina, G,Sourkova, P.Toropov, A,Chernishov, A.Chumachenko, 2008: Climatically-induced natural resourses of the East Europуan Plane: current state and forecast for XXI century (in Russian). Moscow, MAX PRESS, 292. Abstract. Edit.

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