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Understanding the nature of SST changes forcing the observed trends in precipitation

PI: Philip Pegion
Institution: Science Applications International Corporation
Additional Investigators: T. Delworth (GFDL), D. Rind (GISS), P. Rasch and A. Dia (NCAR), A. Kumar (NCEP), and M. Hoerling (NOAA/CDC)
Abstract:
The proposed work will use the next generation climate model and associated data assimilation systems that are being developed at the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). We will use new GMAO global reanalysis data products (the TRMM reanalysis, the CERES-reprocessing data set, and the anticipated MERRA reanalysis), NCEP and ECMWF reanalyses, and land surface information from NASAs Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) and the GMAO atmosphere/land data assimilation system. We will also use information on SST and vegetation from MODIS and AVHRR instruments.

We will also force the model with 20th century IPCC SSTs (3 runs forced with the ensemble mean SSTs from each of the 20th century GFDL, GISS and NCAR coupled model runs) in order to help understand the nature of SST changes forcing the observed trends in precipitation. This work will be coordinated with an ongoing IPCC sponsored sub-project to investigate the trends in various IPPC model runs (Kumar et al. 2004 "Attribution for 20th Century Regional Climate Trends."). The final set of runs (e) will examine the potential impact on droughts of future global warming. In these simulations, the GEOS-5 AGCM will be forced with IPCC scenario SSTs (3 runs forced with the ensemble mean SSTs from the GFDL, GISS and NCAR moderate forcing scenarios run out to the year 2200).
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