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Prediction of Climate Change in the future and its Uncertainty analysis in globe and China

PI: Ying Xu
Institution: China National Climate Center
Additional Investigators: Wei Min, Gao Xuejie
Abstract:
1) I interest in comparing global and regional climate change in historical runs with observations and in the future runs, especially to research uncertainty range and reliability for global and regional climate change from AOGCM simulation using the reliability ensemble averaging method. For example, mean seasonal temperature and precipitation change for the different period of the twenty-first century, over different regions of global and East Asia for diverse anthropogenic emission scenarios.

2) We know that Australia-Asia monsoon plays a dominant role in the regional and global climate, it remains a great challenge to understand the monsoon system and its potential changes in future climate. Changes of land-surface properties such as snow coverage, frozen soil and soil moisture in greenhouse-warmed climate can potentially change the role of land-surface in modulating the Australian-Asian monsoon variability and intensity. So, more research is needed to explore the hemispheric interactions in current and future climate using these AOGCM runs results.
Publications:
  • Xu Min, Luo Yong, Xu Ying, Guo Pinwen, Xu Jingwei, 2009: Changes in Surface Air Temperature and Precipitation Over China Under the Stabilization Scenario of Greenhouse Gas. Advances In Climate Change Reserch (Chinese), 5(2), 79-84. Abstract. Edit.
  • Xu Ying, Xuejie Gao and Filippo. Giorgi, 2010: Upgrades to the reliability ensemble averaging method for producing probabilistic climate-change projections. Clim. Res., 41, 61-68, doi: 10.3354/cr00835. Abstract. Edit.
  • Xu Ying, Chonghai Xu, Xuejie Gao, Yong Luo, 2009: Projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes over the Yangtze River Basin of China in the 21st century. Quaternary International, 208, 44-52, doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2008.12.020. Abstract. Edit.
  • Xu Ying, Gao Xuejie and F. Giorgi, 2009: Regional Variability Of Climate Change Hot-Spots In East Asia. Adv. Atmos. Sci, 26(4), 783-792, doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-9034-2. Abstract. Edit.

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