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Statistical analysis of meridional overturning circulation

PI: Xiuhua Zhu
Institution: German Climate Computing Centre
Previous studies show that there is long term memory in the MOC, shown as a power-law relation from decades upto centuries or even longer( Blender et al 2006) & von Storch 2000, 2001). Now i am revisiting these studies by using the-state-of-the-art IPCC control runs.

If there is such a temporal correlation, it will indicate more predicatability to certain extent: strong MOC year follows strong MOC year, weak MOC year follows weak MOC year. If the MOC's influence on the sea surface temperature is well established, it will also project on the predicatibility of the SST or through the SST we can know more about the MOC.

It is quite interesting that both GFDL and ECHAM5/MPIOM show scaling from years to decades, beyond this the MOC tends to be white, which says no long term mermory. so on one hand, it is consistent with Hasselmann's theory (1976); on the other hand, because my coarse coupled ECHAM5/MPIOM shows different results, this says the existence of long term memory can be model-dependent, which probably is very interesting to check as a model comparison index.

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    Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory  |  Physical & Life Sciences Directorate