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Potential impacts of global warming on tropical intraseasonal variability and extreme precipitation events

PI: Charles Jones
Institution: University of California, Santa Barbara
Additional Investigators: Leila Carvalho
Abstract:
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the main mode of tropical intraseasonal variability with significant influences on the large-scale circulation and precipitation patterns in the tropics and extratropics including the occurrences of extreme precipitation events. Most models have difficulty in representing the characteristics of the MJO such as eastward propagation, amplitude and phase speed. Our objectives would be: 1) examine the degree to which the coupled models participating in the AR4 represent the chracteristics of the MJO and its modulation on extreme precipitation events 2) determine if global climate changes will have signficant impacts on the characteristics of the MJO and occurrences of extreme precipitation. Data necessary to perform the analysis would be primarily daily averages of upper and lower level winds (e.g. zonal winds at 850hPa and 200hPa), precipitation. At least 20 years of daily data during current climate and future climate runs would be necessary.
Publications:
  • Bombardi, R. J., and L. M. V. Carvalho, 2008: Variability of the monsoon regime over Brazil: the present climate and projections for a 2xCO2 scenario using MIROC model. (in Portuguese). Rev. Bras. Meteorology, 23, 58-72. Abstract. Full Article. Edit.
  • Bombardi, R. J., and L. M. V. Carvalho, 2009: IPCC Global coupled climate model simulations of the South America Monsoon System. Climate Dynamics, 33, 893-916, 10.1007/s00382-008-0488-1. Abstract. Full Article. Edit.
  • Bombardi, R. J., and L. M. V. Carvalho, 2010: The South Atlantic dipole and variations in the characteristics of the South American Monsoon in the WCRP-CMIP3 multimodel simulations. Climate Dynamics. In press. Abstract. Edit.

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