PCMDI > WCRP CMIP3 Model Output > Diagnostic Subprojects

PI:	Tereza Cavazos
Institution:	CICESE
Abstract:
There is consistent evidence from observations and models that suggests that a gradual global warming may lead to significant changes in the long-term trend and variability of extreme events. The climate of the western United States – Mexico border region (WBR) is highly variable from year to year. These extreme climatic fluctuations have a strong impact on the environment, with important implications in diverse socio-economical sectors of the region especially in relation to the availability, use, and management of water at the bi-national level. We propose: (1) to quantify the seasonal changes of the frequency and intensity of droughts and floods in the WBR using station precipitation data for Mexico and the US; (2) determine the spatial modes of precipitation variability and relate these to hemispheric scale ocean and atmosphere forcing patterns for winter and summer; (3) examine and clarify the ability of climate models to simulate and project climate extremes including changes in frequency, intensity and duration of extremes in the WBR; and (4) assess a statistical-dynamical downscaling in strategic locations of the WBR to analyze the probability of the local changes of extreme events under climate change scenarios.
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