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Investigating Potential Climate Change Impacts on Tropical Cyclones

PI: Peter Sousounis
Institution: AIR-Worldwide
Abstract:
Previous studies have demonstrated the potential impact of climate change on the frequencies of tropical cyclones and/or on the intensities of these cyclones. However, an increase in the intensity or in the frequency of intense tropical cyclones, which is what climate change scenarios suggest, does not necessarily correlate with an increase in the frequency of landfalling storms. A statistically based algorithm has been developed at AIR-Worldwide that relates large-scale environmental parameters to historical tropical cyclone tracks. We desire to evaluate the algorithm using model output from available GCM climate change scenarios. Results from the study will shed light on how climate change may potentially affect landfalling frequencies of tropical cyclones. Results will be submitted for publication to a peer-reviewed journal.

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