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Quantifying Uncertainties in Model Forecasts

PI: Ben Booth
Institution: Hadley Centre, UK Metoffice
Abstract:
We are hoping to do some analysis on the comparison of perturbed physics ensembles with the multimodel ensemble, to try and answer to what extent the perturbed physics ensemble can represent the full range of model uncertainty.

We hope to get a better understanding of the implication of the structural uncertainty component, which is likely to be more pronounced in the perturbed physics ensemble. The first step would be to reduce both ensembles to scaled patterns for comparison. Potentially it might also be nice to do some medium model analysis with both ensembles, which touched on during your vist to the Hadley Centre a year ago, to further tease apart the structural limitations.
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