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El Nino and Global Warming
| PI: |
Anita Nallapareddy |
| Institution: |
University of Miami |
| Abstract: |
This work follows up on a recent study by Vecchi et al. (2006) and Vecchi and Soden (2007) who documented a weakening of the Walker circulation in GCM simulations in response to anthropogenic forcing. The objective of this project is to evaluate the similiarity between the spatial structures of the model-simulated responses to El Niño and global warming. Variables, such as precipitation, surface temperature, surface pressure, winds, cloud cover, and soil moisture will be examined over the tropics. Linear regression of these variables against an ENSO index (e.g., Nino-3 SST) will be used to describe the spatial patterns of change associated with ENSO for each model. These results will use the 20C3M archive of model output. The resulting regression patterns will be normalized and ensemble-averaged across multiple models to provide a "consensus pattern" of ENSO change. These patterns of ENSO-induced change will be compared to that arising from increased greenhouse gases using the SRES A1b scenario runs for the period 2000-2100. Instead of using regressing against Nino-3 index, we will compute the spatial pattern of the linear trend in the
above variables per degree global warming. This "global warming" pattern will be also be ensemble averaged to emphasize those aspects of the projected response which are robust across models and compared to the "ENSO" pattern.
References:
Vecchi, G.A., B. J. Soden, A.T. Wittenberg, I.M. Held, A. Leetmaa and M.J. Harrison, 2006: Weakening of the tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing. Nature, 441(7089), 73-76.
Vecchi, GA and BJ Soden, 2007: Global warming and the weakening of the tropical circulation, submitted J. Climate. |
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