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Validation and future projection of modeled extreme daily precipitation

PI: Seita Emori
Institution: National Institute for Environmental Studies
Additional Investigators: Koji Dairaku, Simon Brown
Though previous studies have suggested general enhancement of heavy precipitation in the course of global warming, the validation of modelsí ability to represent extreme precipitation has been insufficient and the mechanism that enhances heavy precipitation has not been well explained. Among the models whose results are to be submitted to IPCC this time, some have atmospheric horizontal resolution as high as near 1 degree (T106 CCSR/NIES/FRCGC, N96 Hadley Centre, and T85 NCAR). We will compare the daily precipitation characteristics in the control (or 20C3M) runs of these models with the GPCP 1 Degree Daily data set focusing on extreme precipitation in terms of, for example, 99th percentile. Also, daily precipitation of all the models will be evaluated similarly at lower resolution (after converting all the data to, for example, 3 degree grid). After this validation process, the change in extreme precipitation in future climate in all the models will be assessed. The relationship between the change in extreme precipitation in each model with the changes in precipitable water, vertical motion, stability or other related variables will be analyzed. We will try to see if all the models show similar enhancement of heavy precipitation for similar reasons. If this is not the case, we will try to find any relationship between the systematic error of daily precipitation in control climate in a model and the future projection of daily precipitation with the model. From this result, we will discuss underlying mechanisms of the uncertainty, such as resolution dependence or parameterization dependence. If many similar analyses are proposed, we may concentrate our analysis on certain regions, that is, East Asia and Europe.

Requested experiments:
Control run, 1%/year CO2 increase run
20C3M run, SRES A1B, B1 runs
AMIP run

Requested data:
Daily 2-d: precipitation, sea level pressure, surface latent heat flux
Daily 3-d: eastward and northward wind, and specific humidity (We actually wish to see daily 500hPa omega and vertically integrated water vapor flux convergence. Since they donít seem to be stored, we may try to diagnose them from 3D wind and humidity.)
Monthly: all the atmospheric variables for the periods in which daily data are stored
  • Dairaku, K., and S. Emori, 2006: Dynamic and Thermodynamic Influences on Intensified Daily Rainfall during the Asian Summer Monsoon under Doubled Atmospheric CO2. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L01704, doi:10.1029/2005GL024754. Abstract. Full Article. Edit.
  • Emori, S., and S. J. Brown, 2005: Dynamic and thermodynamic changes in mean and extreme precipitation under changed climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L17706, doi:10.1029/2005GL023272. Abstract. Edit.

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