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Testing model feedback by regression analysis in annual variation and global warming

PI: Yoko Tsushima
Institution: Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
The objective of this analysis is to estimate the best-guess range of feedbacks in global warming. This analysis estimates the feedback parameters of the annual variation and of global warming in the models which are submitted to IPCC AR4. By making the scatter plots of various models' feedback parameters between the annual variation and global warming, and by conducting the regression analysis with these plots, we can find the range of the magnitude of feedbacks in the global warming which correspond to the gain factors in the annual variation which is based upon ERBE observation. The definition of gain factors and analysis method are based on Tsushima and Manabe (2004) and Tsushima et al. (2004).

J. Murphy collaborates on this analysis with us, who conducts this analysis on his ensembles of perturbed physics slab model runs.
S. Manabe participate this analysis as a consultant.

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    Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory  |  Physical & Life Sciences Directorate