Ferranti, L., J. M. Slingo, T. Palmer and B. Hoskins, 1997:
Relations between interannual and intraseasonal monsoon variability as
diagnosed from AMIP integrations. Q.J.R.Meteorol. Soc., 123,
1323-1357.
Monsoon variability on intraseasonal and interannual time-scales
is analysed using data from five 10-year European Centre for Medium- Range
Weather Forecasts Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project integrations,
which differ only in their initial conditions. The results show that monsoon
fluctuations within a season and within different years have a common dominant
mode of variability. The spatial pattern of the common dominant mode in
precipitatiOn has a pronounced zonal structure, with one band of anomalous
rainfall extending from 20°N to 5°N, covering most of the land
areas, with the other band, of opposite sign, lying between 5°N and
10°S, mostly over the Indian Ocean. This mode therefore describes both
the active/break monsoon spells associated with fluctuations of the Tropical
Convergence Zone (TCZ) between the continental and the oceanic regime and
the principal pattern of interannual variability of monsoon rainfall. In
the observations the oscillations between active and break monsoon spells
have similar behavior, although the model is deficient in representing
the rainfall variability over India.
On the intraseasonal time-scale the transition between the two regimes
seems to have a chaotic nature. In addition the probability density function
of the principal mode is bimodal for the years in which this mode is particularly
dominant. These two results indicate a possible similarity with the Lorenz
3-component chaotic model. Northward-propagating convective regions, simulated
by the model, are not clearly associated with the phase transitions of
the TCZ regime. The timing of the monsoon onset appears to be modulated
by the phase of the El Niño/Southem Oscillation during the preceding
season, consistent with observational studies.
The results suggest that the dominant mode may also represent some components
of the observed monsoon variability. The interannual fluctuations of the
dominant mode exhibit only a weak level of reproducibility compared with
the relatively large predictability of a broad- scale monsoon wind-shear
index.