Power, S., F. Tseitkin, M. Dix, R. Kleeman, R. Colman, and
D. Holland, 1995: Stochastic variability at the air-sea interface on decadal
timescales. Geophysical Research Letters, 22, 2593-2596.
Multiple integrations of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM)
exhibit differences in the decadal mean of the surface heat flux, Q. The
differences (typically 2-3 Wm-2 can be as large as 10 Wm-2) in places,
which are shown to produce sea-surface temperature (SST) changes up to
approximately 0.5°C in a hybrid coupled atmosphere/ocean sea ice model
or HCM. This underscores a significant mechanism by which long-lived SST
anomalies can arise, independent of any internal ocean variability, for
which there is very little predictive capability. Consequently, AGCM integrations
using prescribed SSTs provide upper bounds on the predictability of atmospheric
variability. The HCM is used to estimate the magnitude of the drift in
the climatology of coupled models if flux adjustments are based on AGCM
integrations of decadal duration. The random interannual fluctuations in
Q averaged over the ocean are most closely associated with fluctuations
in surface latent heating and long wave radiation to space. The same fluctuations
are not associated with land surface variability. The impact of variability
in other fluxes on SST in the HCM was also analyzed. Changes due to wind-stress
were approximately half those due to heating, while changes due to freshwater
forcing were relatively unimportant except at polar latitudes.