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Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison

Project Participants
Research Highlights & Publicity
Publications 2003-present


Established in 1989 at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) fosters and engages in research aimed at providing a systematic and comprehensive evaluation of climate models. Working with international partners, PCMDI has inspired a fundamental cultural shift in the climate research community: there is now an expectation that everyone should have timely and unimpeded access to output from standardized climate model simulations. This has enabled widespread scientific analysis and scrutiny of the models and, judging by the large number of resulting scientific publications, has accelerated our understanding of climate and climate change.

PCMDI’s mission is to develop improved methods and tools for the diagnosis and evaluation of climate models. Although models have become increasingly complex, model errors and disagreements among model simulations remain substantial and poorly understood. The nature and causes of these disagreements should be uncovered before the models are fully trusted to inform us about global climate change.

PCMDI provides leadership and infrastructure in support of internationally-coordinated model intercomparison activities and carries out research related largely to the multi-model ensemble of results hosted by PCMDI’s infrastructure. Ongoing PCMDI research focuses on 1) detecting and investigating the causes of climate-change (detection/attribution), 2) developing metrics and leading a WCRP metrics panel for evaluating model performance (e.g., Taylor diagrams and performance portraits), and 3) seeking a better understanding of a wide range of climate phenomena. (e.g., the Madden-Julian Oscillation and atmospheric tides). PCMDI also is encouraging the development of observational datasets needed for model evaluation through a relatively new obs4MIPs initiative.

A notable product of PCMDI’s leadership of coordinated modeling activities is the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) which subjects models worldwide to an evolving set of standardized numerical experiments. This has produced multi-model ensembles of simulations that have led to a better understanding of the limitations of any individual model. Although the WCRP’s Working Group on Coupled Modeling (WGCM) is ultimately responsible for CMIP, it relies on PCMDI to host the CMIP website and lead development and maintenance of data standards, the Earth System Grid, and other software, which have all been essential to the success of the project. By making CMIP model output freely available to researchers worldwide, PCMDI has enabled hundreds of research studies now reported on in the peer-reviewed literature (see CMIP3 and CMIP5 publication record). Many of the model-based conclusions appearing in each of the five assessment reports prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are drawn from the scientific foundation of the multi-model collection of CMIP simulations.

PCMDI is supported by the Regional and Global Climate Modeling (RGCM) Program in the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Science within the Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER) and its Climate and Environmental Sciences Division.


Project Participants

Karl Taylor (Principal Investigator and Director)
Celine Bonfils (climate scientist)
Curt Covey (climate scientist)
Charles Doutriaux (computer scientist)
Paul Durack (post-doc, climate scientist)
Michael Ganzberger (computer scientist)
Peter Gleckler (climate scientist)
Renata McCoy (computer scientist)
Jeff Painter (computer scientist)
Tom Phillips (climate scientist)
Ben Santer (climate scientist)
Ken Sperber (climate scientist)
Dean Williams (computer scientist)
Yuying Zhang (climate scientist)

Research Highlights & Publicity

Publications 2003-present

(Researchers supported by PCMDI funding are in bold face font)


    • Covey, Curt, Peter J. Gleckler, Charles Doutriaux, Dean N. Williams, Aiguo Dai, John Fasullo, Kevin Trenberth and Alexis Berg, 2016: Metrics for the diurnal cycle of precipitation: Toward routine benchmarks for climate models. Journal of Climate29 (12), 4461-4471, DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0664.1
    • Byrne, Deidre, Carlos Garcia-Soto, Gordon Hamilton, Eric Leuliette, Lisan Yu, Edmo Campos, Paul J. Durack, Guiseppe M. R. Manzella, Kazuaki Tadokoro, Raymond W. Schmitt, Phillip Arkin, Harry Bryden, Leonard Nurse, John Milliman, Lorna Inniss and Patricio Bernal, 2016: The Ocean's Role in the Hydrological Cycle (Chapter 4). In: The First Global Integrated Marine Assessment. World Ocean Assessment I (2016). United Nations. Accessible online
    • Durack, Paul J., Tong Lee, Nadya T. Vinogradova and Detlef Stammer, 2016: Keeping the lights on for global ocean salinity observation (Commentary). Nature Climate Change, 6 (3), 228-231, doi: 10.1038/nclimate2946
    • Gleckler, P. J., C. Doutriaux, P. J. Durack, K. E. Taylor, Y. Zhang, and D. N. Williams, E. Mason, and J. Servonnat (2016), A more powerful reality test for climate models, Eos, 97, doi:10.1029/2016EO051663. Published on 3 May 2016
    • Gleckler, Peter J., Paul J. Durack, Ronald J. Stouffer, Gregory C. Johnson and Chris E. Forest, 2016: Industrial-era global ocean heat uptake doubles in recent decades, Nature Climate Change, 6 (4), 394-398, doi: 10.1038/nclimate2915
    • Lago, Veronique, Susan E. Wijffels, Paul J. Durack, John A. Church, Nathaniel, L. Bindoff and Simon J. Marsland, 2016: Simulating the role of surface forcing on observed multidecadal upper ocean salinity changes, Journal of Climate, in press, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0519.1
    • Annamalai, H. and K. R. Sperber, 2016: South Asian summer monsoon variability in a changing climate. Chapter 3 (pp. 25-46) in “The Monsoons and Climate Change.” Eds. L. M. V. Carvalho and C. Jones, Springer International Publishing, Switzerland, 253pp.
    • Santer, B.D., S. Solomon, G. Pallotta, C. Mears, S. Po-Chedley, Q. Fu, F.J. Wentz, C.-Z. Zou, J.F. Painter, I. Cvijanovic, and C. Bonfils, 2016: Comparing tropospheric warming in climate models and satellite data. Nat. Clim. Change (submitted).
    • Griffies, S. M., G. Danabasoglu, P. J. Durack, A. J. Adcroft, V. Balaji, C. Böning, E. P. Chassignet, E. Curchitser, J. Deshayes, H. Drange, B. Fox-Kemper, P. J. Gleckler, J. M. Gregory, H. Haak, R. W. Hallberg, H. T. Hewitt, D. M. Holland, T. Ilyina, J. H. Junglaus, Y. Komuro, J. P. Krasting, W. G. Large, S. J. Marsland, S. Masina, T. J. McDougall, J. C. Orr, A. Pirani, F. Qiao, R. J. Stouffer, K. E. Taylor, H. Tsujino, P. Uotila, M. Valdivieso, M. Winton and S. G. Yeager, 2016: Experimental and diagnostic protocol for the physical component of the CMIP6 Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP). Geoscientific Model Development, in review
    • Meehl, G.A., A. Hu, B.D. Santer, and S.-P. Xie (2016); Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation contributions to multi-decadal variability of 20th century globally averaged surface temperatures
    • Fyfe, J.C., G.A. Meehl, M.H. England, M.E. Mann, B.D. Santer, G.M. Flato, E. Hawkins, N.P. Gillett, S.-P. Xie, Y. Kosaka, and N.C. Swart (2016); Making sense of the early 2000s global warming slowdown, Nature Climate Change, 6, 224-228, doi:10.1038/nclimate2938
    • Ivanova, D. P., P. J. Gleckler, K. E. Taylor, P. J. Durack, K. D. Marvel, 2016: Moving beyond the total sea ice extent in gauging model biases
    • Clark, P.U., J.D. Shakun, S.A. Marcott, A.C. Mix, M. Eby, S. Kulp, A. Levermann, G.A. Milne, P.L. Pfister, B.D. Santer, D.P. Schrag, S. Solomon, T.F. Stocker, B.H. Strauss, A.J. Weaver, R. Winkelmann, D. Archer, E. Bard, A. Goldner, K. Lambeck, R.T. Pierrehumbert, and G.-K. Plattner (2016); Consequences of 21st century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change, Nature Climate Change, 6, 360-369
    • Cvijanovic, I., C. Bonfils, D.D. Lucas, B.D. Santer, J.C.H. Chiang, and S. Zimmerman (2016); Seasonally ice-free Arctic favors dry California
    • Boer, G. J., D. M . Smith, C. Cassou, F. Doblas-Reyes, G. Danabasoglu, B. Kirtman, Y. Kushnir, M. Kimoto, G. A. Meehl, R. Msadek, W. A. Mueller, K. E. Taylor, and F. Zwiers, 2016: The decadal climate prediction project
    • Eyring, V., P. J. Gleckler, C. Heinze, R. J. Stouffer, K. E. Taylor, V. Balaji, E. Guilyardi, S. Joussaume, S. Kindermann, B. N. Lawrence, G. A. Meehl, M. Righi, and D. N. Williams, 2016: Towards improved and more routine Earth system model evaluation in CMIP6
    • Santer, B.D., S. Solomon, D.A. Ridley, J.C. Fyfe, F. Beltran, C. Bonfils, J.F. Painter, and M.D. Zelinka, 2016: Volcanic effects on climate. Nature Climate Change, 6, 3-4. doi: 10.1038/nclimate2859  
    • Sperber, K. R., E. Cuisinier, A. Kitoh, C. R. Mechoso, A. F. Moise, W. Moufouma-Okia, K. Schiro, and A. G. Turner, 2014: Modelling Monsoons. In “The Global Monsoon: Research and Forecast III.” World Scientific Publishing Company. (in press)


    • Caldwell, P. M., M. D. Zelinka, K. E. Taylor, and K. Marvel, 2015: Quantifying the sources of inter-model spread in equilibrium climate sensitivity. J. Climate, 29, 513-524, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0352.1.
    • Durack, Paul J., 2015: Ocean Salinity and the Global Water Cycle. Oceanography, 28 (1), 20-31. doi: 10.5670/oceanog.2015.03
    • Hegerl, Gabriele C., Emily Black, Richard P. Allan, William J. Ingram, Debbie Polson, Kevin E. Trenberth, Robin S. Chadwick, Phillip A. Arkin, Beena Balan Sarojini, Andreas Becker, Aiguo Dai, Paul J. Durack and co-authors, 2015: Challenges in quantifying changes in the global water cycle, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 96 (7), pp 1097-1115. DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00212.1
    • Ferraro, R., D. E. Waliser, P. J. Gleckler, K. E. Taylor, and V. Eyring, 2015: Evolving obs4MIPs to Support the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 96 (8), ES131-ES133, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00216.1
    • Cheng, L., A. AghaKouchak, and T. J. Phillips, 2015: Non-stationary return levels of CMIP5 multi-model temperature extremes. Climate Dynamics, 44 (11), 2947-2963, doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2625-y  
    • Benjamin D. Santer, Susan Solomon, Céline Bonfils, Mark D. Zelinka, Jeffrey F. Painter, Francisco Beltran, John C. Fyfe, Gardar Johannesson, Carl Mears, David A. Ridley, Jean-Paul Vernier, Frank J. Wentz,  Observed multivariable signals of late 20th and early 21st century volcanic activity, AGU Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (2) 500-509 (2015),   DOI:   10.1002/2014GL062366
    • Durack, Paul J., 2015: Ocean Salinity and the Global Water Cycle. Oceanography, 28 (1), 20-31, doi: 10.5670/oceanog.2015.03
    • Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E., 2015: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., 8, 10539-10583, doi:10.5194/gmdd-8-10539-2015.
    • Bonfils, C., B. D. Santer, T. J. Phillips, K. Marvel, R. Leung, C. Doutriaux, A. Copotondi, 2015: Relative contributions of mean-state shifts and ENSO-driven variability to precipitation changes in a warming climate J. Clim., 28:9997-10013, 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0341.1.
    •  Rouser, F., P. Gleckler and J. Moretzke, 2015: Re-thinking the use of the multi-model ensemble. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 96:6911-919 DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00181.1  
    • Nasrollahi, N., A. AghaKouchak, L. Cheng, L. Damberg, T.J. Phillips, C. Miao, K. Hsu, and S. Sarooshian,  2014: How well do CMIP5 simulations replicate historical trends and patterns of meteorological droughts? Water Resources Res.51,doi: 10.1002/2014WR016318   
    • Phillips, T.J., and C.J.W. Bonfils, 2015: Koeppen bioclimatic evaluation of CMIP historical climate simulations. Env. Res. Lett., 10, 064005, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/6/064005  
    • Marvel, K., M. D. Zelinka, S. A. Klein, C. Bonfils, P. Caldwell, C. Doutriaux, B. D. Santer, and K. E. Taylor, 2014: Detection of external influences on observed cloud trends. Nature Geoscience doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00734.1 


    • Durack, Paul J., Peter J. Gleckler, Felix W. Landerer and Karl E. Taylor, 2014: Quantifying Underestimates of Long-term Upper-Ocean Warming. Nature Climate Change, 4 (11), 999-1005, doi: 10.1038/nclimate2389
    • Durack, Paul J., Susan E. Wijffels and Peter J. Gleckler, 2014: Long-term Sea-level Change Revisited: The Role of Salinity. Environmental Research Letters, 9 (11), 114017, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/9/11/114017
    • Griffies, Stephen M., Jianjun Yin, Paul J. Durack and co-authors, 2014: An Assessment of global and regional sea level for years 1993-2007 in a suite of interannual CORE-II simulations, Ocean Modelling, 78, 35-89, doi: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2014.03.004
    • Kim, D., P. Xaiver, E. Maloney, M. Wheeler, D. Waliser, K. R. Sperber, H. Hendon, C. Zhang, R. Neale, Y.-T., Hwang, and H. Liu, 2014: Process-oriented MJO simulation diagnostic: moisture sensitivity of simulated convection. J. Clim., 27, 5379-5395. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00497.1
    • Sperber, K. R., and H. Annamalai, 2014: The use of fractional accumulated precipitation for the evaluation of the annual cycle of monsoons. Clim. Dynam. 43, 3219-3244. doi: 10.1007/s00382-014-2099-3.
    • Wehner, M. F., K. Reed, F. Li, Prabhat, J. Bacmeister, C.-T., Chen, C. Paciorek, P. J. Gleckler, K. R. Sperber, W. D. Collins, A. Gettleman, and C. Jablonowski, 2014: The  effect of horizontal resolution on simulation quality in the Community Atmospheric Model, CAM5.1. J. Adv. Modeling Earth Sys. doi: 10.1002/2013MS000276.
    • Sperber, K. R., E. Cuisinier, A. Kitoh, C. R. Mechoso, A. F. Moise, W. Moufouma-Okia, K. Schiro, and A. G. Turner, 2014: Modelling Monsoons. In “The Global Monsoon: Research and Forecast III.” World Scientific Publishing Company. (in press)
    • Mehran, A., A. AghaKouchak, and T.J. Phillips, 2014: Evaluation of CMIP5 continental precipitation simulations relative to GPCP satellite observations. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 119, 16951707, doi: 10.1002/2013JD021152  
    • Landerer, F., P. Gleckler, and T. Lee, 2013: Evaluation of CMIP5 dynamic sea surface height multi- model simulations against satellite observations. Clim. Dynamics, 43, pp 1271-1283, doi: 10.1007/s00382-013-1939-x   
    •  Bandoro, J., S. Solomon, D.W.J. Thompson, A. Donohoe, and B.D. Santer, 2014: Influence of the Antarctic ozone hole on seasonal changes in climate in the Southern Hemisphere. Journal of Climate, 27:166245-6264 , doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00698.1  
    • Zelinka, M.D., T. Andrews, P.M. Forster, and K.E. Taylor, 2014: Quantifying components of aerosol- cloud-radiation interactions in climate models, J. Geophys. Res., 119, 7599–7615 doi: 10.1002/2014JD021710   
    • Teixeira, J., D. Waliser, R. Ferraro, P. Gleckler, T. Lee and G. Potter, 2014: Satellite Observations for CMIP5: The Genesis of Obs4MIPs. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 95 (9)1329-1334, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00204.1
    • Liu, Z., A. Mehran, T.J. Phillips, and A. AghaKouchak, 2014: Seasonal and regional biases in CMIP5 precipitation simulations. Clim. Res., doi: 10.3354/cr01221  
    • Caldwell, P. M., C. S. Bretherton, M. D. Zelinka, S. A. Klein, B. D. Santer, and B. M. Sanderson, 2014: Statistical significance of climate sensitivity predictors obtained by data mining, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 1803–1808, doi:10.1002/2014GL059205  
    • Santer, B.D., C. Bonfils, J.F. Painter, M. Zelinka, C. Mears, S. Solomon, G.A. Schmidt, J.C. Fyfe, J.N.S. Cole, L. Nazaenko, K.E. Taylor, and F.J. Wentz, 2014: Volcanic contribution to decadal changes in tropospheric temperature. Nature Geoscience, 7, 185-189, doi: 10.1038/ngeo2098 


    • Covey, C., R. M. Haberle, C. P. McKay and D. V. Titov, 2013: The greenhouse effect and climate feedbacks. In Comparative Climatology of the Terrestrial Planets. Mackwell, S., M. Bullock, and J. Harder (Eds.), University of Arizona Press, in press.
    • Durack, Paul J., Susan E. Wijffels and Tim P. Boyer, 2013: Long-term salinity changes and implications for the global water cycle (Chapter 28). In: Ocean Circulation and Climate (Second Edition), A 21st Century Perspective. Siedler, Gerold, Stephen M. Griffies, John Gould and John A. Church (Eds.). Volume 103, pp 727-757, International Geophysics, Academic Press, Elsevier, Oxford OX5 1GB, UK, doi: 10.1016/B978-0-12-391851-2.00028-3
    • Guilyardi, Eric, V. Balaji, B. Lawrence, S. Callaghan, C. DeLuca, S. Denvil, M. Lautenschlager, M. Morgan, S. Murphy, K. E. Taylor, and the METAFOR team, 2013: Documenting climate models and their simulations. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94, 623-627, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00035.1
    • Hao, Z., A. AghaKouchak, and T.J. Phillips, 2013: Changes in concurrent precipitation and temperature extremes. Env. Res. Letters, 8, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034014
    • Marvel, K., D. Ivanova, and K. E. Taylor, 2013: Scale space methods for climate model analysis. J. Geophys. Res., 188, 5082-5097, doi: 10.1002/jgrd.50433
    • Santer, B.D., J. Painter, C. Bonfils, C. Mears, S. Solomon, T.M.L. Wigley, P.J. Gleckler, G.A. Schmidt, C. Doutriaux, N.P. Gillett, K.E. Taylor, P.W. Thorne, and F.J. Wentz, 2013: Human and natural influences on the changing thermal structure of the atmosphere. Proc. Nat. Acad. of Sci., released online, doi: 10.1073/pnas1305332110
    • Santer, B. D., J. F. Painter, C. A. Mears, C. Doutriaux, P. Caldwell, J. M. Arblaster, P. J. Cameron-Smith, N. P. Gillett, P. J. Gleckler, J. Lanzante, J. Perlwitz, S. Solomon, P. A. Stott, K. E. Taylor, L. Terray, P. W. Thorne, M. F. Wehner, F. J. Wentz, T. M. L. Wigley, L. J. Wilcox, and C.-Z. Zou, 2013: Identifying human influences on atmospheric temperature. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 110, 26-33, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1210514109.
    • Sperber, K. R., H. Annamalai, I.-S. Kang, A. Kitoh, A. Moise, A. Turner, B. Wang, and T. Zhou, 2013: The Asian summer monsoon: An intercomparison of CMIP5 vs. CMIP3 simulations of the late 20th century. Clim. Dynamics, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1607-6
    • Wigley, T.M.L., and B. D. Santer, 2013: A probabilistic quantification of the anthropogenic component of twentieth century warming. Clim. Dynamics, 40, 1087-1102, doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1585-8
    • Zelinka, M.D., S.A. Klein, K. E. Taylor, T. Andrews, M.J. Webb, J.M. Gregory, and P.M. Forster, 2013. Contributions of different cloud types to feedbacks and rapid adjustments in CMIP5. J. Climate26 (14), 5007-5027, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00555.1
    • Griffies, S. M., J. Yin, S. C. Bates, E. Behrens, M. Bentsen, D. Bi, A. Biastoch, C. Böning, A. Bozec, C. Cassou, E. Chassignet, G. Danabasoglu, S. Danilov, C. Domingues, H. Drange, P. J. Durack and co-authors, 2013: An assessment of global and regional sea level in a suite of interannual CORE-II simulations: a synopsis. Exchanges: newsletter of the Climate Variability and Predictability Programme (CLIVAR), No. 62, Vol. 18 (2), 11-15. Accessible online
    • Covey, C., A. Dai, R. S. Lindzen, and D. R. Marsh, 2014: Atmospheric tides in the latest generation of climate models. J. Atmos. Sci., 71, 1905-1913. DOI: 10.1175/JAS-D-13-0358.1
    • Meehl, G.A., R. Moss, K.E. Taylor, V. Eyring, R.J. Stouffer, S. Bony, and B. Stevens, 2014: Climate model intercomparisons: Preparing for the next phase, EOS Trans. AGU, 95, doi: 10.1002/2014EO090001
    • Flato, G., J. Marotzke, B. Abiodun, P. Braconnot, S. C. Chou, W. Collins, P. Cox, F. Driouech, S. Emori, V. Eyring, C. Forest, P. Gleckler, E. Guilyardi, C. Jakob, V. Kattsov, C. Reason and M. Rummukainen, 2013: Evaluation of Climate Models. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T. F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P. M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. http://www.climatechange2013.org/report/full-report/


    • Andrews, T., J. M. Gregory, M. J. Webb, and K. E. Taylor, 2012: Forcing, feedbacks and climate sensitivity in a new generation of climate models. Geophys. Res. Letts. 39, L09712, doi:10.1029/2012GL051607
    • Bonfils, C. W. J., T. J. Phillips, D. M. Lawrence, P. Cameron-Smith, W. J. Riley, and Z. M. Subin, 2012: On the influence of shrub height and expansion on northern high latitude climate. Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 015503, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/015503.
    • Durack, P. J., S. E. Wijffels, and R. J. Matear, 2012: Ocean salinities reveal strong global water cycle intensification during 1950-2000. Science, 336 (6080), 455-458, doi:10.1126/science.1212222.
    • Gleckler, P. J., B. D Santer, C. Domingues, D. Pierce, T. P. Barnett, J. Church, K. E. Taylor, K. AchutaRao, T. Boyer, M. Ishii, and P. Caldwell, 2012: Human-induced global ocean warming on multidecadal timescales. Nature Climate Change, 2, 524-529, doi:10.1038/nclimate1553.
    • Ivanova, D. P., J. L. McClean, and E. C. Hunke, 2012: Interaction of ocean temperature advection, surface heat fluxes and sea ice in the marginal ice zone during the North Atlantic Oscillation in the 1990s: A modeling study. J. Geophys. Res., 117, C02031, doi:10.1029/2011JC007532
    • Pierce, D.W., P. J. Gleckler, T. P. Barnett, B. D. Santer, and P. J. Durack, 2012: The fingerprint of human-induced changes in the ocean’s salinity and temperature fields. Geophys. Res. Letters, 39, L21704, doi: 10.1029/2012GL053389
    • Sen Gupta, A., L. C. Muir, J. N. Brown, S. J. Phipps, P. J. Durack, D. Monselesan, and S.E. Wijffels , 2012: Climate drift in the CMIP3 models. J. Clim., 25, 4621-4640, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00312.1
    • Sperber, K. R. and D. Kim, 2012: Simplified metrics for the identification of the Madden-Julian oscillation in models. Atmos. Sci. Lett., 13, 187-193, doi: 10.1002/asi.378
    • Subin, Z., L. Murphy, F. Li, C. Bonfils, and W. Riley, 2012: Boreal lakes moderate seasonal and diurnal temperature variation and perturb atmospheric circulation. Tellus-A, 64, 15635, doi:10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.15639
    • Taylor, K. E., R. J. Stouffer, and G. A. Meehl, 2012: An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 485-498, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1.
    • Zhang, Y., S. Xie, C. Covey, D. D. Lucas, P. Gleckler, S. Klein, J. Tannahill, C. Doutriaux, and R. Klein, 2012: Regional assessment of the parameter-dependent performance of CAM4 in simulating tropical clouds. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L14806,  doi: 10.1029/2012GL052184/abstract
    • Pierce, D.W., P.J. Gleckler, T.P. Barnett, B.D. Santer, and P. Durack, 2012: The fingerprint of human-induced changes in the ocean’s salinity and temperature fields. Geophys. Res. Letters39, L21704, doi: 10.1029/2012GL053389.


    • Covey, C., A. Dai, R. S. Lindzen, and D. Marsh, 2011: The surface-pressure signature of atmospheric tides in modern climate models. J. Atmos. Sci., 68, 495-514 doi: 10.1175/2010JAS3560.1
    • Durack, P. J., S. E. Wijffels, and N. L. Bindoff , 2011: [Global Oceans] Ocean salinity: A water cycle diagnostic? [In "State of the Climate in 2010"]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 92 (6), S91-93, doi:10.1175/1520-0477-92.6.S1
    • Gleckler, P., R. Ferraro, and D. Waliser, 2011: Improving use of satellite data in evaluating climate models. EOS, 92, 20. DOI: 10.1029/2011EO200005
    • McClean, J. L., D. C. Bader, F. O. Bryan, M. E. Maltrud, J. M. Dennis, A. A. Mirin, P. W. Jones, Y. Y. Kim, D. P. Ivanova, M. Vertenstein, J. S. Boyle, R. L. Jacob, N. Norton, A. Craig, and P. H. Worley, 2011: A prototype two-decade fully-coupled fine-resolution CCSM simulation. Ocean Modelling, 39, 10-30, doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2011.02.011.
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    • Boyle, J., 2006: Upper level atmospheric stationary waves in the twentieth century climate of the Intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) simulations. J. Geophys. Res., 111, D14101, doi:10.1029/2005JD006612.
    • Collins, W.D., M. Blackmon, C. Bitz, G. Bonan, C.S. Bretherton, J.A. Carton, P. Chang, S. Doney, J. J. Hack, J.T. Kiehl, T. Henderson, W.G. Large, D. McKenna, B.D. Santer, and R.D. Smith, 2006: The Community Climate System Model: CCSM3. J. Clim., 19, 2122-2143, doi: 10.1175/JCLI3761.1.
    • Covey, C., P. J. Gleckler, T. J. Phillips, and D. C. Bader, 2006: Secular trends and climate drift in coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models. J. Geophys. Res., (Atmospheres), 111, D03107, doi:10.1029/2005JD006009.
    • Forster, P.M., and K.E. Taylor, 2006: Climate forcings and climate sensitivities diagnosed from coupled climate model integrations. J. Clim., 19, 6181-6194, doi: 10.1175/JCLI3974.1.
    • Gleckler, P.J., K. AchutaRao, J.M. Gregory, B.D. Santer, K.E. Taylor, and T.M.L. Wigley, 2006: The effect of volcanic eruptions on ocean heat content and thermal expansion. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L17702, doi:10.1029/2006GL026771.
    • Gleckler, P.J., B.D. Santer, T.M.L. Wigley, J.M. Gregory, K. AchutaRao, and K.E. Taylor, 2006: Volcanoes and climate: Krakatoa's signature persists in the ocean. Nature, 439, 675, doi: 10.1038/439675a.
    • Gleckler, P.J., K.R. Sperber, and K. AchutaRao, 2006: The annual cycle of global ocean heat content: Observed and simulated. J. Geophys. Res., 111, C06008, doi:10.1029/2005JC003223.
    • Lin, J.-L., G.N. Kiladis, B.E. Mapes, K.M. Weickmann, K.R. Sperber, W. Lin, M. Wheeler, S. Schubert, A. Del Genio, L.J. Donner, S. Emori, J-F. Gueremy, F. Hourdin, P.J. Rasch, E. Roeckner, and J.F. Scinocca, 2006: Tropical intraseasonal variability in 14 IPCC AR4 climate models part I: Convective signals. J Clim., 19, 2665-2690, doi: 10.1175/JCLI3735.1.
    • Meehl, G.A., W.M. Washington, B.D. Santer, W.D. Collins, J.M. Arblaster, A. Hu, D.M. Lawrence, H. Teng, L.E. Buja, and W.G. Strand, 2006: Climate change in the 20th and 21st centuries and climate change commitment in the CCSM3. J. Clim., 19, 2597-2616, doi: 10.1175/JCLI3746.1.
    • McClean, J., M.E. Maltrud, and F.O. Bryan, 2006: Measures of the fidelity of eddying ocean models. Oceanography, 19, 104-117. doi: 10.5670/oceanog.2006.94
    • Phillips, T.J., 2006: Reproducibility of seasonal land surface climate. J. Hydromet., 7, 114-136.doi: 10.1175/JHM453.1
    • Phillips, T.J., K. AchutaRao, D. Bader, C. Covey, C.M. Doutriaux, M. Fiorino, P.J. Gleckler, K.R. Sperber, and K.E. Taylor, 2006: Coupled climate model appraisal: A benchmark for future studies. Eos Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union, 87, doi:10.1029/2006EO190002.
    • Phillips, T.J., and P.J. Gleckler, 2006: Evaluation of continental precipitation in 20th-century climate simulations: The utility of multi-model statistics. Water Resour. Res., 42, W03202, doi:10.1029/2005WR004313.
    • Pierce, D.W., P.J. Gleckler, T.P. Barnett, K.M. AchutaRao, J.M. Gregory, and W.M. Washington, 2006: Anthropogenic warming of the oceans: observations and model results. J. Clim., 19, 1873–1900, doi: 10.1175/JCLI3723.1.
    • Pierce, D.W., P.J. Gleckler, T.P. Barnett, and E. Fetzer, 2006: Three-dimensional tropospheric water vapor in coupled climate models compared with observations from the AIRS satellite system. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L21701, doi:10.1029/2006GL027060.


    • Annamalai, H., and K.R. Sperber, 2005: Regional heat sources and the active and break phases of Boreal summer intraseasonal variability. J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 2726-2748. doi: 10.1175/JAS3504.1
    • Bader, D., A. Bamzai, J. Fein, A. Patrinos, and M. Leinen, 2005: The community climate system model project from an interagency perspective. EOS Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union, 86 , 309 - 310.
    • Barnett, T.P., D. Pierce, K. AchutaRao, P. Gleckler, B.D. Santer, J. Gregory, and W. Washington, 2005: Penetration of human-induced warming signal into the world's oceans. Science, 309, 284-287, doi: 10.1126/science.1112418 .
    • Barnett, T.P., F. Zwiers, G. Hegerl, M. Allen, T. Crowley, N. Gillett, K. Hasselmann, P. D. Jones, B.D. Santer, R. Schnur, P. Stott, K.E. Taylor, and S.F.B. Tett, 2005: Detecting and attributing external influences on the climate system: A review of recent advances. J. Clim., 18, 1291-1314, doi: 10.1175/JCLI3329.1.
    • Boyle, J.S., D. Williamson, R. Cederwall, M. Fiorino, J. Hnilo, J. Olson, T. Phillips,G. Potter, and S. Xie, 2005: Diagnosis of community atmospheric model 2 (CAM2) in numerical weather forecast configuration at Atmospheric Radiation Measurement sites. J. Geophys. Res., 110, D15S15, doi:10.1029/2004JD005042.
    • Eyring, V., N.R.P. Harris, M. Rex, T.G. Shepherd, D.W. Fahey, G.T. Amanatidis, J. Austin, M.P. Chipperfield, M. Dameris, P.M.D.F. Forster, A. Gettelman, H.F. Graf, T. Nagashima, P.A. Newman, S. Pawson, M.J. Prather, J.A. Pyle, R.J. Salawitch, B.D. Santer, and D.W. Waugh, 2005: A strategy for process-oriented validation of coupled chemistry-climate models. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 86, 1117–1133, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-86-8-1117.
    • Gibbard, S., K. Caldeira, G. Bala, T.J. Phillips, and M. Wickett, 2005: Climate effects of global land cover change. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L23705, doi:10.1029/2005GL024550.
    • Gleckler, P.J., 2005: Surface energy balance errors in AGCMs: Implications for ocean-atmosphere model coupling. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L15708, doi:10.1029/2005GL023061.
    • Hatsushika, H., J. Tsutsui, M. Fiorino, and K. Onogi, 2005: Impact of wind profile retrievals on the analysis of tropical cyclones in the JRA-25 reanalysis. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 84, 891–905.
    • Liu, P., B. Wang, K.R. Sperber, T. Li, and G.A. Meehl, 2005: The Madden-Julian oscillation in the national center for atmospheric research community atmospheric model-2 with the Tiedtke convective scheme. J. Clim., 18, 3007–3020, doi: 10.1175/JCLI3458.1
    • McClean, J., D. Ivanova, and J. Sprintall, 2005: Remote origins of interannual variability in the Indonesian Throughflow region from data and a global Parallel Ocean Program simulation. J. Geophys. Res., 110, C10013, doi:10.1029/2004JC002477.
    • Meehl, G. A., C. Covey, B. McAvaney, M. Latif, and R. J. Stouffer, 2005: Overview of the coupled model intercomparison project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 86, 89–93, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-86-1-89.
    • Prasad, T., J. McClean, E. Hunke, A. Semtner, and D. Ivanova, 2005: A numerical study of the western Cosmonaut polynya in a coupled ocean-sea ice model. J. Geophys. Res., 110, C10008, doi:10.1029/2004JC002858.
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    • K. R. Sperber, Slingo, J. M. and P. M. Inness, 2005: Modelling the Madden-Julian oscillation. Chapter 11 in Intraseasonal Variability of the Atmosphere-Ocean Climate System. W.K.M. Lau and D. E. Waliser, Eds., Praxis Publishing, Chicchester, UK., 436pp.
    • Sperber, K.R., G. Gualdi, S. Legutke, and V. Gayler, 2005: The Madden-Julian oscillation in ECHAM4 coupled and uncoupled GCMs. Clim. Dyn., 25, 117–140, doi: 10.1007/s00382-005-0026-3.
    • Sudradjat, A., R. R. Ferraro, and M. Fiorino, 2005: A comparison of total precipitable water between reanalyses and NVAP. J. Clim., 18, 1790–1807, doi: 10.1175/JCLI3379.1.
    • Wigley, T.M.L., C.M. Ammann, B.D. Santer, and S.C.B. Raper, 2005: The effect of climate sensitivity on the response to volcanic forcing. J. Geophys. Res., 110, D09107, doi:10.1029/2004JD005557.
    • Wigley, T.M.L., C.M. Ammann, B.D. Santer, and K.E. Taylor, 2005: Comment on "Climate forcing by the volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo" by David H. Douglass and Robert S. Knox. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L20709, doi:10.1029/2005GL023312.


    • Coquard, J., P.B. Duffy, K.E. Taylor, and J.P. Iorio, 2004: Present and future surface climate in the western USA as simulated by 15 global climate models. Clim. Dyn., 23, 455–472, doi: 10.1007/s00382-004-0437-6.
    • Covey, C., K.M. AchutaRao, P.J. Gleckler, T.J. Phillips, K.E. Taylor, and M.F. Wehner, 2004: Coupled ocean-atmosphere climate simulations compared with simulations using prescribed sea surface temperature: effect of a 'perfect ocean'. Global and Planet. Ch., 41, 1–14. doi: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2003.09.003
    • Gillett, N.P., B.D. Santer, and A.J. Weaver, 2004: Stratospheric cooling and the troposphere. Nature, 432, doi:10.1038/nature 03209.
    • Hannachi, A., D.B. Stephenson, and K.R. Sperber, 2004: Probability-based methods for quantifying nonlinearity in the ENSO (Erratum). Clim. Dyn., 22, 69–70, doi: 10.1007/s00382-003-0377-6.
    • Phillips, T.J., and P.J. Gleckler, 2004: Evaluation of continental precipitation in 20th-century climate simulations. Water Resour. Res., 42, W03202, doi:10.1029/2005WR004313.
    • Phillips, T.J., G.L. Potter, D.L. Williamson, R.T. Cederwall, J. S. Boyle, M. Fiorino, J.J. Hnilo, J.G. Olson, S. Xie, and J.J. Yio, 2004: Evaluating parameterizations in general circulation models: Climate simulation meets weather prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, 1903–1915, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-85-12-1903.
    • Santer, B.D., M.F. Wehner, T.M.L. Wigley, R. Sausen, G.A. Meehl, K.E. Taylor, C. Ammann, J. Arblaster, W.M. Washington, J.S. Boyle, and W. Bruggemann, 2004: Response to comment on "Contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcing to recent tropopause height changes". Science, 303, 1771, doi: 10.1126/science.1092441 .
    • Santer, B.D., T.M.L. Wigley, and R. Ragaini, 2004: New fingerprints of human effects on climate. In: International Seminar on Nuclear War and Planetary Emergencies, 30th Session, World Scientific Publishing, New Jersey, 69–85. DOI:10.1142/9789812702753_0008
    • Santer, B.D., T.M.L. Wigley, A. Simmons, P. Kalberg, G. Kelly, S. Uppala, C. Ammann, J.S. Boyle, W. Bruggemann, C. Doutriaux, M. Fiorino, C. Mears, G.A. Meehl, R. Sausen, K.E. Taylor, W.M. Washington, M.F. Wehner, and F.J. Wentz, 2004: Identification of anthropogenic climate change using a second-generation reanalysis. J. Geophys. Res., 109, D21104, doi:10.1029/2004JD005075.
    • Seidel, D. J., J. Angell, et al., 2004: Uncertainty in signals of large-scale climate variations in radiosonde and satellite upper-air temperature datasets. J. Clim., 17, 2225-2240, doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<2225:UISOLC>2.0.CO;2
    • Sperber, K.R., 2004: Madden-Julian Variability in NCAR CAM2.0 and CCSM2.0. Clim. Dyn., 23, 259–278, doi: 10.1007/s00382-004-0447-4.


    • Black, E., J. Slingo, and K.R. Sperber, 2003: East African rainfall and Indian Ocean SST. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 74–94, doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131<0074:AOSOTR>2.0.CO;2.
    • Covey, C., K.M. AchutaRao, U. Cubasch, P. Jones, S.J. Lambert, M.E. Mann, T.J. Phillips, and K.E. Taylor, 2003: An overview of results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Glob. Planet. Ch., 37, 103–133. doi: 10.1016/S0921-8181(02)00193-5
    • Duffy, P. B., B. Govindasamy, J. P. Iorio, J. Milovich, K. R. Sperber, K. E. Taylor, M. F. Wehner, and S. L. Thompson, 2003: High resolution simulations of global climate, part 1: present climate. Clim. Dyn., 21, 371-390, doi: 10.1007/s00382-003-0339-z
    • Hanachi, A., D. B. Stephenson, and K. R. Sperber, 2003: Probability-based methods for quantifying nonlinearity in the ENSO. Clim. Dyn., 20, 241–256, doi: 10.1007/s00382-002-0263-7.
    • Hodges, K.I., B.J. Hoskins, J. Boyle, and C. Thorncroft, 2003: A comparison of recent reanalysis datasets using objective feature tracking: storm tracks and tropical Easterly waves. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 2012–2037, doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131<2012:ACORRD>2.0.CO;2.
    • Santer, B.D., R. Sausen, T.M.L. Wigley, J.S. Boyle, K. AchutaRao, C. Doutriaux, J.E. Hansen, G.A. Meehl, E. Roeckner, R. Ruedy, G. Schmidt, and K.E. Taylor, 2003: Behavior of tropopause height and atmospheric temperature in models, reanalyses, and observations: Decadal changes. J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4002, doi:10.1029/2002JD002258.
    • Santer, B.D., T.M.L. Wigley, G.A. Meehl, M.F. Wehner, C. Mears, M. Schabel, F.J. Wentz, C. Ammann, J. Arblaster, T. Bettge, W.M. Washington, K.E. Taylor, J.S. Boyle, W. Bruggemann, and C. Doutriaux, 2003: Influence of satellite data uncertainties on the detection of externally-forced climate change. Science, 300, 1280–1284, doi:10.1126/science.1082393.
    • Santer, B.D., M.F. Wehner, T.M.L. Wigley, R. Sausen, G.A. Meehl, K.E. Taylor, C. Ammann, J. Arblaster, W.M. Washington, J.S. Boyle, and W. Brüggemann, 2003: Contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcing to recent tropopause height changes. Science, 301, 479–483, doi:10.1126/science.1084123.
    • Santer, B.D., T.M.L. Wigley, G.A. Meehl, M.F. Wehner, C. Mears, M. Schabel, F.J. Wentz, C. Ammann, J. Arblaster, T. Bettge, W.M. Washington, K.E. Taylor, J.S. Boyle, W. Bruggemann, and C. Doutriaux, 2003: Response to J.R. Christy and R.W. Spencer. Science, 301, 1047–1049, doi: 10.1126/science.301.5636.1046.
    • Sausen, R., and B.D. Santer, 2003: Use of changes in tropopause height to detect human influences on climate. Meteor. Z., 12, 131–136.DOI: 10.1127/0941-2948/2003/0012-0131
    • Smith, R.L., T.M.L. Wigley, and B.D. Santer, 2003: A bivariate time series approach to anthropogenic trend detection in hemispheric mean temperatures. J. Clim., 16, 1228–1240, doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(2003)16<1228:ABTSAT>2.0.CO;2.
    • Sperber, K.R., 2003: Propagation and the vertical structure of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 3018–3037, doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131<3018:PATVSO>2.0.CO;2.



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