The goal of this work is to estimate model error growth rates in simulations of the atmospheric circulation by the MM5 model all the way from the short range to the medium range and beyond. The major topics are addressed to: (i) search the optimal set of parameterization schemes; (ii) evaluate the spatial structure and scales of the model error for various atmospheric fields; (iii) determine geographical regions where model errors are largest; (iv) define particular atmospheric patterns contributing to the fast and significant model error growth. Results are presented for geopotential, temperature, relative humidity and horizontal wind components fields on standard surfaces over the Atlantic-European region during winter 2002. Various combinations of parameterization schemes for cumulus, PBL, moisture and radiation are used to identify which one provides a lesser difference between the model state and analysis. The comparison of the model fields is carried out versus ERA-40 reanalysis of the ECMWF. Results show that the rate, at which the model error grows as well as its magnitude, varies depending on the forecast range, atmospheric variable and level. The typical spatial scale and structure of the model error also depends on the particular atmospheric variable. The distribution of the model error over the domain can be separated in two parts: the steady and transient. The first part is associated with a few high mountain regions including Greenland, where model error is larger. The transient model error mainly moves along with areas of high gradients in the atmospheric flow.
Acknowledgement: This study has been supported by NATO Science for Peace grant #981044. The MM5 modelling system used in this study has been provided by UCAR. ERA-40 re-analysis data have been obtained from the ECMWF data center.
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