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The North American Monsoon in the AR4 20C3M Simulations

The North American Monsoon in the AR4 20C3M Simulations

Kenneth E. Kunkel, Xin-Zhong Liang, and Jinhong Zhu
Illinois State Water Survey
Champaign, IL

We are conducting a diagnostic analysis of model simulations regarding their ability to reproduce the surface climatic features and tropospheric circulation features of the North American Monsoon (NAM). We have identified key circulation features correlated with the interannual variability of June-September precipitation in the core NAM area of Mexico. We are analyzing all of the available 203CM simulations produced for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, comparing observed correlation patterns with those produced by the model. Preliminary diagnosis shows that most CGCMs fail to produce key characteristics of the NAM precipitation annual cycle and interannual variability and their links to the planetary circulation. Yet certain models do capture some of these key characteristics. We will present a more complete diagnosis of the common model failures and outstanding successes in simulating the NAM precipitation variability.