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Simulation of the Great Plains Low-level Jet in the AR4 Coupled GCMs

Simulation of the Great Plains Low-level Jet in the AR4 Coupled GCMs

Zachary Launer, Edward Vizy, and Kerry H. Cook
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Cornell University
Ithaca NY 14853

The realism of the simulation of an important dynamical feature of the summertime climate of the Midwestern U.S., the Great Plains low level jet (GPLLJ), is evaluated in 18 coupled GCM simulations of the 20th century. The modeled time-mean jet and its variability, as well as its relationship to precipitation and surface moisture, are compared with two reanalysis products - the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (with similar resolution to the GCMs) and the North American Regional Reanalysis (with finer resolution than GCMs) - to select models with reasonable representations. Simulations of the 21st century from a few models with more realistic simulations of the GPLLJ are examined to evaluate possible changes in the jet under various forcing scenarios, and the relationship of those changes to any changes in Midwest hydrology. A multi-scale analysis will be used to evaluate the extent to which the GPLLJ acts to communicate the global-scale warming signal, and/or SST increases in the tropical Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, into small-scale precipitation systems over the Central Plains.