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Systematic Errors in El Nino Teleconnections and Associated Extreme Events over North America

Systematic Errors in El Nino Teleconnections and Associated Extreme Events over North America

Gerald A. Meehl, Claudia Tebaldi, Haiyan Teng and Julie Arblaster
NCAR

Systematic errors in El Nino teleconnections over North America in global coupled climate models are shown to be manifested as errors in the associated patterns of extremes. Typically, the anomalously deepened Aleutian Low that occurs during El Nino events in northern winter is shifted westward in association with centers of equatorial SST anomalies, precipitation and convective heating anomalies that are also positioned too far west in the model El Nino events. Therefore, in comparison to observed patterns of extremes during El Nino events, there are comparable systematic errors in the simulated extremes over North America. These errors are shown to be relevant to interpretation of possible future changes of extremes in climate change projections.