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A Comparison of Climate Prediction and Simulation over Tropical Pacific

A Comparison of Climate Prediction and Simulation over Tropical Pacific

Vasubandhu Misra, L. Marx, M. Fennessy, B. Kirtman, J. L. KinterIII

In this study we compare an ensemble of seasonal hindcasts with a multi-decadal integration from the same global coupled climate model over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. It is shown that the annual mean state of the SST and its variability are different over equatorial Pacific Ocean in the two operating modes of the model.

These differences are a manifestation of a more inherent difference in the physics of coupled air-sea interactions and upper ocean variability. It is argued that in the presence of large coupled model errors and in the absence of a coupled data assimilation, the competing and at times additive influence of the initialization and model errors can change the behavior of the air-sea interaction physics and upper ocean dynamics.