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Trends in Short-wave and Long-wave Radiation in Models Compared to Satellite Observations

Trends in Short-wave and Long-wave Radiation in Models Compared to Satellite Observations

Joyce E. Penner, Natalia Andronova, and Li Xu

University of Michigan

We examine the 15 years of satellite data, from 1984 to 1999, from the ERBE instruments on the ERBS satellite in comparison to 20 different GCMs. ERBE longwave fluxes increase during this period while shortwave fluxes decrease. The modeled longwave flux trend is close to zero during this time period, while the modeled shortwave flux trend is significantly smaller than the observed trend. We also use a trajectory mapping to examine the short term trends after Pinatubo, together with an intercomparison of modeled and observed temperatures. We find considerable discrepancies between observations and all AR4 model simulations in reproducing the post-Pinatubo longwave and shorwave signals. We discuss the possible reasons for these discrepancies.