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Developing a Performance Metric for the Simulation of Rainfall Variability and Change: The Case of the Sahel

Developing a Performance Metric for the Simulation of Rainfall Variability and Change: The Case of the Sahel

Michela Biasutti (LDEO)

Can a good performance in the simulation of the 20th century lend credence to the prediction for the 21st century? We explore this question in the context of changes in Sahel rainfall. We present a statistical analysis of the pre-industrial, 20th century and A1B simulations of 19 models that shows how, while the IPCC AR4 models show excellent agreement in simulating the response of Sahel rainfall to the 20th century forcings, they grossly disagree in their outlook for the 21st century. Moreover, we show that the degree of similarity in simulations of the annual cycle and of mechanisms of interannual variability of Sahel rainfall in the 20th century consitute a poor predictor for the similarity of predictions in the 21st century. Finally, we offer a template for testing the validity of a performance metric.